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the problem with the america/china consumer thesis is its entirely reliant on china being able to ingest and distribute dollars/yuan internally.
the 'shades of lehman' issue at bar:
gaucho buys his golf cart.
alibaba's processor accepts the dollars, converts to yuan, sends to henan bank.
henan bank simply cannot or will not allow that deposit to be converted into outflow.
so whether or not gaucho gets his golf cart depends on whether or not every single link in the warehouse / distributor / shipping chain is willing to work for free. indefinitely.
and naturally there are the second order concerns where vendors sue the manufacturer of gaucho's golf cart for non payment and seize assets up to and including his unshipped golf cart.
that said, china does have the capability to harvest the living organs from the entire henan bank c-level management layer while they are alive and awake and fully aware of whats happening to them and then doing what is needful to unfuck whatever happened here long enough for shipping to resume.
which does honestly beg the question; why havent they already?
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