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no bullshit; the single most important thing ive learned about trading so far

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  • no bullshit; the single most important thing ive learned about trading so far

    ...learn to lose with grace.

    there are a million fucking ways to combine a handful of indicators to find viable entry signals.

    but when one trade doesnt act right and chooses violence, how you respond to that is, to use the mathematical concept, infinitely more important than finding entries. how you respond to L's will make or break your account.

    door number 1 is you cut that shit off before it turns into a problem and walk away from the keyboard because you know that sooner or later, another trade will come. this... is the way. this.... is profitable.

    door number 2 is where you become anxious and want to erase the losses. so you probably stay in the trade, hoping it reverses which would somehow validate your original thesis, and then you either blow up your account right then and there waiting for that ship to come in or, more likely, you let go of the trade immediately before it reverses, take a massive L on the books, and then immediately try to ... and this is an important sequence of events.... recover your losses by correcting your mistake and catch the reversal.

    which.. more often than not, is already reversing on you again. resulting in 2x the original loss on the books.

    i think the key is to recognize that the emotional root of that cycle is anxiety. taking that L makes us feel less safe, less satisfied, less secure. the money in the account is security. we know that. its not just the opportunity to take more trades but its everything from iodine pills and gieger counters to a new ford GT to 5 acres of fertile soil in the PNW to getting peking duck delivered to putting a smile on a bad bitches face etc.

    when we take an L, all those things are suddenly taken off the table. this is anxiety provoking, this provokes a fight/flight caliber response. "fix this... now".

    you might luckbox your way back to green now and again from there but on a long enough timeline you busto your account, trading when youre in that state.

    period. full fucking stop.

    so yeah the lesson here is this:

    cultivate the ability to see beyond the red on your books. there will always be another trade, theres no need to force things, theres no need to go looking for it. it will literally find you if your entry protocols are sound.

    people talk about how no one is really profitable in this for 3 years minimum. that is why. it doesnt take 3 years to learn how to make money in the market. i made more money much faster than i do now in the first 6 months i was trading. but every single time, i would run it up in ways that to this day i cant quite believe happened then do shit like lose $30,000 trying to make back $300.

    in like, an hour.

    so yeah if anyone came here looking for actual real life advice on how to get rich gambling on the market, let this post be the one that you fuck with.

  • #2
    ive probably made this same post 3 different times by now but its important so fuck it we ball.


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    • #3
      if anyone thinks i wont make a 4th post about this and then some id love to hear your absolutely nerd ass thesis.

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      • #4
        I think everyone who plays poker identifies with this. Warning humble brag going foreward.

        I estimate my IQ roughly around 115-120. For reference I imagine minimum Sonatine sits at 130. But I've probably been more successful at poker despite the lower intelligence.

        In the last 6 months, I've been playing for fun on Ontario sites and run up a free 12 bucks into 1600$. I basically wanted to see if I could repeat on a smaller level what I did 15 years ago. Back in 2005-2010 I ran a free 15 bucks into six figures using an extremely conservative bankroll strategy (risk of ruin always zero percent). I've always told people that playing good poker is anything but exciting and sexy. Once you have a solid game it's nearly entirely game selection and autistic discipline. There are much better players who do so much worse than me given how prone they are to tilting, poor bankroll management, or bad game selection. I'd never play a game I wasn't sure I was a favourite, had no problem leaving the table if I had a bad beat, or felt I wasn't able to play at 95% of my ability. Chasing loses is often the difference between a professional or pathological gambler regardless of skill.

        One of the first poker authors I ever read was a guy named Rolf Slotboom. You probably won't find much on him but he was the epitome of a good player who had insane discipline and used it to outperform many players who understood poker better than him. Just to give you an idea he actually wrote an article outlining how he would find enjoyable ways to fold the cards in live poker when he was card dead to avoid playing crap hands in desperation.

        I can't see why it would be any different for trading or various other aspects of life.

        Comment


        • gimmick
          gimmick commented
          Editing a comment
          I think I have some of Slotboom's signed omaha books somewhere. Either from FTP or Stars before you could get anything decent with their relevant points. I started my stars account with a $100 freeroll win around 2004ish. Back then the fields were less than 1k. I had money on paradise/party but moving money wasn't really convenient back then. Mailed checks through a random middleman was the easiest way of cashing out.

        • sonatine
          sonatine commented
          Editing a comment
          literally staring at a copy of Slotboom's PLO book on my shelf rn.

      • #5
        Trading patterns (breakouts) makes the stop loss a little easier. You think you see a Cup & Handle developing - you are prepared to buy once the handle completes and break out is confirmed. Obv if the breakout fails and retraces 4% below the breakout number you were wrong. You bail. Take the “L”. You have zero reason to stay in the trade. You plan was wrong. Worse yet you may just have a trade that does nothing at this point.

        Candlestick Charting ain’t what it used to be though. Everyone sees the same thing and someone on a dull day may just harvest the pattern trader’s money. You gotta feel if there are enemies lying in wait. There IS another side.

        Taking the L in all forms of gambling is about personal growth. It’s also about aging and losing ego, Pretty much just enjoying the process not the money.

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        • #6
          Originally posted by betcheckbet View Post
          IQ.


          one of the weirdest psychological quirks of trading is that people with 'lower IQs' consistently do better than people with 'high IQs' because they dont try to outsmart the market.

          they arent hung up on nailing reversals, they arent invested emotionally in weird thesis', they just say 'ok market going up, ill bet on market going up' and they rake a bit of profit.

          people love to watch HSP/PAD footage of galaxy brains overshoving empire-money with air and they think thats what poker is. real poker is boring. "if youre having fun, youre doing it wrong." the only really accurate portrayal of a real poker player i can think of is knish from rounders. all that cincinatti kid shit, thats gambling, its not poker.

          and it sucks but yes, day trading is _exactly_ the same deal. its a grind.

          i havent watched this video in a while but if memory serves, this guy went like a year or so where he had literally one losing day:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F3mdBtygzQ

          his secret to success? base hits. take small profits. dont get caught up in 'money you left on the table'. and thats the part that takes fucking years to turn into muscle memory.

          Comment


          • #7
            Originally posted by Sanlmar View Post
            Trading patterns (breakouts) makes the stop loss a little easier. You think you see a Cup & Handle developing - you are prepared to buy once the handle completes and break out is confirmed. Obv if the breakout fails and retraces 4% below the breakout number you were wrong. You bail. Take the “L”. You have zero reason to stay in the trade. You plan was wrong. Worse yet you may just have a trade that does nothing at this point.

            Candlestick Charting ain’t what it used to be though. Everyone sees the same thing and someone on a dull day may just harvest the pattern trader’s money. You gotta feel if there are enemies lying in wait. There IS another side.

            Taking the L in all forms of gambling is about personal growth. It’s also about aging and losing ego, Pretty much just enjoying the process not the money.
            so much truth there.

            market makers have 100% deployed automated systems to do nothing but stop out retail money, and thats why neither the tape nor candlesticks can be trusted.

            even breakouts are trappy but im starting to agree that they are essentially the last game in down for consistent profits. perhaps the only method that has them pipped is auction theory / order flow analysis.

            something that discourages me, a lot honestly, is i got into this because i felt like nav sarao demonstrated that market could be beat even before he started spoofing. and what i find myself reluctantly admitting is that this market would eat him alive. in fact its basically designed to eat him alive.

            caveat emptor and all that.

            Comment


            • #8
              Originally posted by sonatine View Post



              one of the weirdest psychological quirks of trading is that people with 'lower IQs' consistently do better than people with 'high IQs' because they dont try to outsmart the market.

              they arent hung up on nailing reversals, they arent invested emotionally in weird thesis', they just say 'ok market going up, ill bet on market going up' and they rake a bit of profit.

              people love to watch HSP/PAD footage of galaxy brains overshoving empire-money with air and they think thats what poker is. real poker is boring. "if youre having fun, youre doing it wrong." the only really accurate portrayal of a real poker player i can think of is knish from rounders. all that cincinatti kid shit, thats gambling, its not poker.

              and it sucks but yes, day trading is _exactly_ the same deal. its a grind.

              i havent watched this video in a while but if memory serves, this guy went like a year or so where he had literally one losing day:

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F3mdBtygzQ

              his secret to success? base hits. take small profits. dont get caught up in 'money you left on the table'. and thats the part that takes fucking years to turn into muscle memory.
              I can't comment about IQ and trading but one of the least biased measures of intelligence is the Raven's progressive matrixes. It's essentially just pattern mapping. See the interesting thing with humans is that we are amazing at identifying patterns but have a high amount of false positives in doing so. In fact humans are really bad at identifying random data or reproducing it for that matter. I guess the question would be is that do individuals with high IQs also have a higher rate of false positives in detecting patterns in random data? That would probably be oversimplifying but if I learned anything from structural equation modeling its that more variables are not necessarily a good thing when modelling. For humans simple predictive models are the best guides.

              If you want to see just how bad humans are with randomness try the following.

              Have someone generate 50 random poker starting hands and compare it to what a computer generates. You'll find the human data does not repeat cards enough and provides too even a distribution, whereas truly random data will do some odd things that humans pick up as patterns. This is why so many smart guys when they start playing poker feel the deal is rigged. They see patterns in randomness that are simply not there.

              Comment


              • sonatine
                sonatine commented
                Editing a comment
                "This is why so many smart guys when they start playing poker feel the deal is rigged. They see patterns in randomness that are simply not there." i feel so called out rn
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