ok also

SPOILERthe one thing they really fuck up in the show that the books get right is Ye transmitting the second signal because she is basically a shattered soul who has given up on humanity but also clearly wants an alien species to stabilize our future, whether its human or not. whereas evans just wants humans obliterated. right up to the raid, ye is trying to bridge that rift between the ideologies. but in the show, all that subtlety is lost. and the actors describe ye's motivation as 'disappointment', not a psychopathic lack of empathy from trauma. so theres that.

anyway. again, looking forward to book 2.

more 3 body thread pulling

SPOILER

so something that i still dont understand was when they give ye the documents/transmissions captured from evans ship, its all from the trisolaran perspective and filled with data and details that they would never consider sharing, written from the perspective of the trisolari and revealing the exact mechanics of how they are going to 'lock' humanity from its science.

it literally makes zero sense. even if the sophons quantum communication capabilities were made available to both sides without any filters, eg evans found a way to monitor the trisolarans like they monitor us, they wouldnt transmit their own creation what with them not existing at the time.

and apparently its not addressed in the later books, and im not the first to be like hey what the fuck is going on here, and people are just giving liu a pass and being like 'oh humans just riffed it all based on shit the trisolari just casually told them' and im sorry but thats realllllllly weak. its a massive hole.

so again, another place where B & W basically patched a massive fumble by liu is the evans/trisolaran discourse because they not only made it make sense but made it an essential plot point that enhances everything before and after it.

the more i research the last 50 pages or whatever of the book and how flawed they are, the more convinced i am that they were something demanded by the editors. theres just no fucking way liu would casually blow up at the finish line like this without there being something compelling it. this should have been a last chapter, like a prologue, not the logical contents of evans hard drives.

it would have behooved me to start book 2 before making the previous post(s).

i think im enjoying book 2 more than book 1. about 1/3 into it. tbh im skimming a lot of the military/political philosophy. of which there is.. holy shit... a lot. and its very, very, very chinese. but yeah im really happy with the evans coda, im really happy with the wallfacer/wallbreaker shit, im really happy with the trisolarian convos, theres a lot to work with and i feel like someone somewhere felt a similar way to me when the first book dropped and made some stiff editorial suggestions.

You want to do me a small favor (dont spend a lot of time)? I am starting to kick around my own option plays (for fun).

what do you make of RBRK? I think i see this building and wants to breakout. My "order flow" guy things there are buyers.

September options the 130 calls are as cheap as .80. Seems like if this does start running it may hit a few bucks.

no problem. i actually have a sub for an option chain provider, let me tuck into this a bit.

The other interesting one is OPEN

ok so book 2 is a wrap. if they managed to blow through 20 million dollars to animate a monkey thawing out, its not clear to me how they afford to pay for an even vaguely accurate adaptation.

id be a fool to bet against them at this point tho. im guessing they scale back almost everything related to the future tech etc and probably prune almost everything related to space beyond the perspective of earth.

if netflix's fx expenses were the topic of discussion in the 80s/90s it would be generally accepted that the bulk of them were being funneled to black government projects.

8/18 expiration

​


9/17 expiration

​



10/17 expiration







1/18/2026







focusing on the 1/18 2026 expiration because thats got the most bullish and assuming your price target is 130:



Single Leg Option


Symbol: RBRK260116C00095000

Strike: 95

Side: call

Cost: $12.25

Projected Value: $35

Profit: $22.75

ROI: 185.71%

Volume: 63
​

Debit Spread

Long Leg:


Symbol: RBRK260116C00125000

Strike: $125

Cost: $4.9

Projected Value: $5 Short Leg:


Symbol: RBRK260116C00130000

Strike: $130

Credit: $4.2

Projected Value: $0 Spread Summary:


Net Cost: $0.7

Projected Value: $5

Profit: $4.3

ROI: 614.29%
​




some raw data to chew on:


{
"analysis": {
"debit_spread": {
"cost": 0.7,
"long_leg": {
"cost": 4.9,
"profit": 0.1,
"projected_value": 5,
"side": "call",
"strike": 125,
"symbol": "RBRK260116C00125000",
"volume": 5
},
"profit": 4.3,
"projected_value": 5,
"roi": 614.29,
"short_leg": {
"cost": 4.2,
"profit": -4.2,
"projected_value": 0,
"side": "call",
"strike": 130,
"symbol": "RBRK260116C00130000",
"volume": 0
},
"time_decay_estimates": [
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 0,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "Now"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 0.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "30 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 1,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "60 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 1.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "90 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 2,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "120 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 2.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "150 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 3,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "180 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 3.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "210 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 4,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "240 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 4.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "270 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "300 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 5.5,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "330 min"
},
{
"estimated_value": 5.7,
"hours_offset": 6,
"long_value": 9.9,
"profit": 5,
"roi": 714.29,
"short_value": 4.2,
"time": "360 min"
}
]
},
"single_leg": {
"cost": 12.25,
"profit": 22.75,
"projected_value": 35,
"roi": 185.71,
"side": "call",
"strike": 95,
"symbol": "RBRK260116C00095000",
"time_decay_estimates": [
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 0,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.71,
"time": "Now",
"time_decay_factor": 1
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 0.5,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.71,
"time": "30 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9999
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 1,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.7,
"time": "60 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9999
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 1.5,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.69,
"time": "90 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9998
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 2,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.69,
"time": "120 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9997
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 2.5,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.68,
"time": "150 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9997
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.25,
"hours_offset": 3,
"profit": 35,
"roi": 285.68,
"time": "180 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9996
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 3.5,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.67,
"time": "210 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9995
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 4,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.66,
"time": "240 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9995
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 4.5,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.66,
"time": "270 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9994
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 5,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.65,
"time": "300 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9994
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 5.5,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.64,
"time": "330 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9993
},
{
"estimated_value": 47.24,
"hours_offset": 6,
"profit": 34.99,
"roi": 285.64,
"time": "360 min",
"time_decay_factor": 0.9992
}
],
"volume": 63
},
"strangle_debit_spread": {
"call_debit_spread": {
"cost": 0.7,
"long_leg": {
"cost": 4.9,
"profit": 0.1,
"projected_value": 5,
"side": "call",
"strike": 125,
"symbol": "RBRK260116C00125000",
"volume": 5
},
"profit": 4.3,
"projected_value": 5,
"roi": 614.29,
"short_leg": {
"cost": 4.2,
"profit": -4.2,
"projected_value": 0,
"side": "call",
"strike": 130,
"symbol": "RBRK260116C00130000",
"volume": 0
}
},
"cost": 5.25,
"profit": 4.75,
"projected_value": 10,
"put_debit_spread": {
"cost": 4.55,
"long_leg": {
"cost": 54.15,
"profit": -44.15,
"projected_value": 10,
"side": "put",
"strike": 140,
"symbol": "RBRK260116P00140000",
"volume": 0
},
"profit": 0.45,
"projected_value": 5,
"roi": 9.89,
"short_leg": {
"cost": 49.6,
"profit": -44.6,
"projected_value": 5,
"side": "put",
"strike": 135,
"symbol": "RBRK260116P00135000",
"volume": 0
}
},
"roi": 90.48,
"time_decay_estimates": [
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 0,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "Now"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 0.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "30 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 1,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "60 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 1.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "90 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 2,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "120 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 2.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "150 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 3,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "180 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 3.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "210 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 4,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "240 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 4.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "270 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "300 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 5.5,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "330 min"
},
{
"call_value": 5.7,
"estimated_value": 10.25,
"hours_offset": 6,
"profit": 5,
"put_value": 4.55,
"roi": 95.24,
"time": "360 min"
}
],
"type": "Strangle Debit Spread (4 legs)"
}
}​​​

You more or less blew my head off with the raw data. Ill have to try and make sense of it.

all i take from this so far is if RBRK does break out beyond $108 i could invest .70 to make $5.00 if it keeps running.

like if you give me a target price and a date i can find you the most profitable way to cash in on that thesis.

gaal just casually manipulating dawn to get an entire planet exterminated and being suuuuper chipper about it is some mighty interesting writing

i wonder if chinese authors have a state mandated amount of content dedicated to sturdy, fatalistic russians with uplifting and adventurous natures.

lmao this feels significant