Running theme with zoom and peloton is that they both got the first to popularize something spot. Weirdly even if the product is kinda shit just familiarizing the brand is worth a lot. Biggest example of this is likely BTC.

Moderna could go either way. There's 5ish legit players going for vaccine and Moderna is somewhere at the back of that line.

EU is betting on AstraZeneca and SanofiPasteur-GSK. While keeping it's options open with Johnson & Johnson, BioNTech-Pfizer, Moderna, Curevac and some smaller firms.

OBV after you know who nailed the vaccine this is all moot. JP is just betting it's not Moderna and that apps/solutions for quarantine have limited use after vaccine. I'm not that sold on that. We're never going back to 2019 and covid only sped the transition from irl related crap. The direction was the same before the plague.

its interesting because zoom is going to be a victim of the same hype machine that gave it this valuation. when the lockdown came, everyone said 'now zoom is relevant', and when the vaccine comes, its going to be 'gg zoom lmao' and even tho zoom is part of a totally burnt in market share, its stock imploding is going to be a self fulfilling meme.

pelatons got much bigger problems. apparently 80% of its revenue is tied to hardware sales and they were a total niche market before covid hit. once gyms are open and safe, sales will plummet and subscriptions will vanish, thats going to be the headlines driving their value.

mrna ... how long until their c-levels start getting subpoenas? like honestly... if not for their pre-covid accomplishments, just judging them on what they've accomplished compared to the seemingly infinite vaccine vaporware hype pump and dumps... they walk and talk like the new enron.

Moderna going either way was based on after someone comes up with the vaccine. I give them a solid 1% at doing that themselves. A much bigger chance is baked in the current price. It's a weird stock to include in post vac shorts. They nail it, it's to the moon, brick it and they plummet.

But yea kinda shit products and non existing lol fundamentals. The issue is that's a lot of companies.

By all accounts Amazon should go down by same logic (loss of customers) and i don't really see that. They should lose a lot business, but there's sort of relative value with stocks in that money needs to go somewhere.

There's also the part about Robinhood making rational decisions, the HFTs taxing them and rest of the traders/algos working of that data.

Then later on in the pipeline is Fed unloading and cashing in their markers. That could take forever. I think the 2009 brrr action was partially corrected in 2014-2018.

Running theme is that it's going to be weird.