absolutely, i was just telling sanlimar the same. the smartest way to play earnings is to ride the wave and cash out at 3:59pm.
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I just dont see how anyone is selling. This company just acquired gunbroker.com today(for 240 mil) which should be adding $3-$4 EBITDA on its own, and will be posting insane ER on Tues premarket.
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i mean look im new to this too but i have seen enough 'sure things' either blow up and deflate over night into the red by the time you can sell, or just tank because analysts only care weird shit like retention / subscription numbers and that overwhelms ad income etc... like its endless, how many ways this shit is a crap shoot. the notion that logic can be profitable in the market is fantasy, is my point.
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Okay......Sooooooo.....it doesn't look like the 3/19 $17.5 SWBI call option is going to be working out for me. Currently sitting at $17.70 with a $19.65 breakeven, I feel like cutting the cord rn with a $94 loss is the most prudent thing to do.
Do I do that by hitting the shiny green exercise button on my RH app?
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$ ./net_week.py swbi
2020-03-11 open: 4.47 close: 6.78 percent: 51.68 change: 2.31
2020-03-18 open: 6.38 close: 6.2 percent: -2.82 change: -0.18
2020-03-25 open: 6.3 close: 6.38 percent: 1.27 change: 0.08
2020-04-01 open: 6.16 close: 5.49 percent: -10.88 change: -0.67
2020-04-08 open: 5.53 close: 6.21 percent: 12.3 change: 0.68
2020-04-15 open: 6.12 close: 6.88 percent: 12.42 change: 0.76
2020-04-22 open: 6.99 close: 7.43 percent: 6.29 change: 0.44
2020-04-29 open: 7.43 close: 7.14 percent: -3.9 change: -0.29
2020-05-06 open: 7.19 close: 7.52 percent: 4.59 change: 0.33
2020-05-13 open: 7.51 close: 7.86 percent: 4.66 change: 0.35
2020-05-20 open: 7.9 close: 8.12 percent: 2.78 change: 0.22
2020-05-27 open: 8.21 close: 11.52 percent: 40.32 change: 3.31
2020-06-03 open: 11.84 close: 12.94 percent: 9.29 change: 1.1
2020-06-10 open: 13.04 close: 14.1 percent: 8.13 change: 1.06
2020-06-17 open: 14.37 close: 14.22 percent: -1.04 change: -0.15
2020-06-24 open: 14.01 close: 16.54 percent: 18.06 change: 2.53
2020-07-01 open: 16.99 close: 16.83 percent: -0.94 change: -0.16
2020-07-08 open: 17.26 close: 16.63 percent: -3.65 change: -0.63
2020-07-15 open: 16.92 close: 17.62 percent: 4.14 change: 0.7
2020-07-22 open: 17.67 close: 18.49 percent: 4.64 change: 0.82
2020-07-29 open: 18.98 close: 19.8 percent: 4.32 change: 0.82
2020-08-05 open: 20.23 close: 19.21 percent: -5.04 change: -1.02
2020-08-12 open: 19.38 close: 18.48 percent: -4.64 change: -0.9
2020-08-19 open: 18.39 close: 17.27 percent: -6.09 change: -1.12
2020-08-26 open: 17.5 close: 21.11 percent: 20.63 change: 3.61
2020-09-02 open: 22.28 close: 17.35 percent: -22.13 change: -4.93
2020-09-09 open: 17.86 close: 16.49 percent: -7.67 change: -1.37
2020-09-16 open: 16.46 close: 16.19 percent: -1.64 change: -0.27
2020-09-23 open: 16.26 close: 15.4 percent: -5.29 change: -0.86
2020-09-30 open: 15.7 close: 16.99 percent: 8.22 change: 1.29
2020-10-07 open: 17.15 close: 16.62 percent: -3.09 change: -0.53
2020-10-14 open: 16.74 close: 17.16 percent: 2.51 change: 0.42
2020-10-21 open: 17.2 close: 16.96 percent: -1.4 change: -0.24
2020-10-28 open: 16.64 close: 17.58 percent: 5.65 change: 0.94
2020-11-04 open: 17.4 close: 16.06 percent: -7.7 change: -1.34
2020-11-11 open: 16.1 close: 16.31 percent: 1.3 change: 0.21
2020-11-18 open: 16.25 close: 15.25 percent: -6.15 change: -1.0
2020-11-25 open: 15.2 close: 15.72 percent: 3.42 change: 0.52
2020-12-02 open: 15.64 close: 15.48 percent: -1.02 change: -0.16
2020-12-09 open: 15.48 close: 17.23 percent: 11.3 change: 1.75
2020-12-16 open: 17.07 close: 18.04 percent: 5.68 change: 0.97
2020-12-23 open: 18.12 close: 17.13 percent: -5.46 change: -0.99
2020-12-30 open: 17.03 close: 19.02 percent: 11.69 change: 1.99
2021-01-06 open: 19.49 close: 20.69 percent: 6.16 change: 1.2
2021-01-13 open: 20.99 close: 20.77 percent: -1.05 change: -0.22
2021-01-20 open: 20.33 close: 17.19 percent: -15.45 change: -3.14
2021-01-27 open: 16.74 close: 16.77 percent: 0.18 change: 0.03
2021-02-03 open: 16.83 close: 18.41 percent: 9.39 change: 1.58
2021-02-10 open: 18.72 close: 18.78 percent: 0.32 change: 0.06
2021-02-17 open: 18.84 close: 17.77 percent: -5.68 change: -1.07
2021-02-24 open: 18.03 close: 17.21 percent: -4.55 change: -0.82
2021-03-01 open: 17.49 close: 17.94 percent: 2.57 change: 0.45
### pos / neg ###
pos: 29
neg: 23
### average win/loss amount ###
+ 1.0527586206896553
- -0.9591304347826086
### average win/loss percent ###
+ 9.445172413793102
- 5.533913043478262
so youre about 3 weeks out... average green week is $1... market _appears_ to be recovering from the last dip which works in your favor... i dont know, i dont think this is a terrible spot for you. but yeah this is the classic cross you end up on when you go OTM on options.
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reallllllly hard market to bet on right now, dont get discouraged. a lot and i mean a lot of people are blowing up accounts.
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Ok. 1 day before expiration and were ITM. Would you let the options to till end of close on Friday or would you exercise now? sonatine
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This is a bit of a tangent, but I somehow managed to lose about $10k this summer trading options, during a market where it would have been literally impossible to lose just straight stock trading. I will say they really get you good by making you wait 3 days to use funds when you sell a stock but release option $$ the next day, which for an action junkie like me made options a lot more attractive.
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Originally posted by Kalam View PostThis is a bit of a tangent, but I somehow managed to lose about $10k this summer trading options, during a market where it would have been literally impossible to lose just straight stock trading. I will say they really get you good by making you wait 3 days to use funds when you sell a stock but release option $$ the next day, which for an action junkie like me made options a lot more attractive.
2 pieces of advice that may or may not resonate with you but definitely stemmed a lot of blood loss for me:
1) avoid weeklies unless youre scalping (always buy time)
2) focus on spreads instead of single leg contracts
its become very en vogue lately to sell intraweek spy puts at like 5-7% profit per. there was a few viral videos of tiktok aged wunderkin who had made 50k from $500 by doing this.
two things need to be pointed out here; they did so during a 6 month or so stretch when the market never really dipped, and they call this 'snatching quarters from in front of a steam roller' because its one of those 'totally works until it doesnt and then youre fucking broke' plays.
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Originally posted by Sanlmar View PostHappy Options Expiration Day Onestep
I still have POWW 7/16 $12.5c options currently doing as well as an alcoholic at an open bar but we got time for that to rebound
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somewhere around here i have a post saved from a guy who literally made a million dollars one year gambling his ass off on options... and something he made very clear (which surprised me) was that you should absolutely always dump a position thats going against you because if you save $100 off a $400 investment, youre literally like 2 coinflips from recouping those losses. but if it goes to zero its a wrap. its a really difficult thing to pull (i cant do it as often as i should) but its a great lesson.
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