literally placed 2 earnings plays today. a 375c on NVDA 5/22 and i ghosted your FRO play for a 8c 6/22.

???

FRO just dropped through 200 SMA, which is not a great omen... I'm guessing people are bailing because the big ER push didnt materialize.. still green so no complaints here of course but I'm expecting the bloom is off the rose, near term. NVDA recovered its losses nicely during off hours and looks like its ready to shrug off the investor complaints about misrepresenting its client base, but Im a lot more nervous this quarter than I was last ER.. cloud GPU services could hurt them more now that the market for desktop crypto mining is essentially over. But that said, the overwhelming majority of hardware AI/ML systems eg Tesla use NVDA chips.. target price has been upgraded to $385, but is that pricing in this whole crypto-mining subterfuge scandal? I'm less than sure it is. If I had to guess, I'll end up cashing out green tomorrow before close to pocket profits before taking the same position at a discount, essentially.

Might as well jump in with both feet.

I have admit that i was excited when I read Sonatine's post about this site, because i have playing this exact game for the past 8 years. I am a second generation reader of the forums, and have been reading dally since grad school.

I have spent the last eight years working as a petroleum engineer in the shale industry, and am on my third company, because there is always a higher paying gig for people in my specialty.

Abrowns pick here went against everything i have learned about small cap oil. Rule number 1. Nothing matters, and I repeat NOTHING maters except the price of oil. good company, bad company, profit, loss, debt, none of it matters except the price of oil. I have learned this lesson by lighting my 401k on fire a couple of times.

That being said I had a little unused money in my etrade account,and i liked abrowns logic in the PFA thread, so jumped on 200 shares, only to prove once gain in my mind, that the only thing that matters when it comes to smaller oil related stocks is the price of oil, and the occasional middle east bad news.

That being said here are 2 that might be a 100%+ headshot in the next few months if the price of oil rebounds. WPX and OAS, both have the reputation of having their shit together in the shale world, and both are trading near their historic lows. none of that matters though unless the price of oil goes up.

Tough NVDA beat. I'm a long term holder of about a dozen individual stocks, and NVDA has been my best performer by far. It was a good quarter, but when you run up 25% in a month to all time highs you really have to crush earnings. I'm still a long term fan.

Please don't ban me for being a long term holder in a short term forum

i mean at the end of the day, you went about it correctly. pretty sure this earnings report was essentially priced in weeks ago. that combined with the lawsuit.. thats life.

So is your $1,200 gone? Are you gonna shut the forum down?

Down from $1k to $560 but its been 3 days and I'm feeling my oats.

i mean lets be honest, chances are:



like a solid dozen times at least.

but i want that fuckin bar, and i want that fuckin condo, so site stays up until i get there.

When do your NVDA options expire? Did you sell them off? Up 3% right now

last i checked they were down about 98%. im letting it ride because weird shit can happen at the end of the day and cashing them out for $12 or something isnt worth the emotional leakage.

note that this wasnt a play from my challenge account.

Well, I’m glad you are here and will hopefully share your experience w oil. What are your thoughts on AR here? RRC? GTE?

also, will the misatreams survive and if so, aren’t most of them undervalued?

tia

AE and RRC are basicly east coast gas, long term profitablity is this area is dependent on pipeline accsess and pipline contract price. There are many places on the east coast where you could almost drill a gas well with a post hole digger, so lease prices and pipline access are everything. companys like these are made profitable by the people doing the long term negotiating, not the exploration and operations. I think they are both overvalued unless they are on someones radar for takeover.

GTE is columbia, and right now columbia oil is a crapshoot. I think they might be worth a shot in the long run. I do know columbia leases are about 20% the cost of north america.

A quick tale that explains making money in the oil patch:

Kodiak Oil, probably the worst exploraion company in the Baken is purchased by Whiting petrolium one of the best exploration companies in the Baken for $4 billion.
everyone involved with Kodiac now has fuck you money for life, and Whiting couldnt service the debt, and is in chapter 11. the war was won at the negotiating table not in the oil field.



Edit: after a few hours research, I am going to splash $2500 on GTE, total risk reward play.