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July 31 The $600/wk stimulus disappears.
i know you are not conflating foreclosure with missed payment cause there is the forbearance. Nevertheless, the cards are gonna be in the air.
Also, think about the huge friggin spread between the cost of capital (0%) and Quicken’s mortgage lending rate (3.4%) . Quicken is minting money. IPO soon. Remember them. Remember me.
But yeah. There is a binary existence out there. Record loans are being written - vs - potential record missed rent and mortgage payments -
the fed fired a warning shot at the banks last week. which is either very mature or very naive... either the banks will be able to contain the real estate foreclosure rot and will weather the storm, or they are more levered than they appear and the ones who are still in business in 2021 are the ones who stayed liquid until the bailouts could be siphoned out of social security etc.
but yeah no matter how look at it, real estate is a soft target. the 2 trillion dollar question is; to what extent will it take down the credit market?
pretty sure ally is going to
they are hugely welded to the subprime auto loan market and seem immune to good news.Comment
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Tasteful Steve Baum Insert.
july 6 gonna be the start of a magical period. Stimulus ($600) soon to expire. Little bit of lead time prior to July 4 Covid spike. You try not to get trampled at the entrance so you line up early kinda thing.
existing home sales # not sharp. 2.8% appreciation though.Comment
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This was the greatest thing to ever happen to me. Can anybody handicap the odds of this being extended in some form? Prob not a full $600, but at least some sort of sliding scale of extra money?Originally posted by Sanlmar View Post
I think Trump would go along with it as long as he got most of the credit.Comment
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Thank you democratsComment
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Originally posted by PLOL View Post
i believe hes rolling out another stim package proposal that at least includes another check. i think the extra $600 is totally off the table however.Comment
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I think $600 is off the table, but I don't think other things are off the table. I've even heard of a "back to work" bonus being floated by RepublicansOriginally posted by sonatine View PostComment
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What happens to the housing market if this continues? Would it be comparable to the 2008 crisis?
I am looking to buy a house this winter/spring. I imagine this works in my favor in terms of prices, but perhaps against me in securing a loan?Comment
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Everyone had the opportunity to enroll in forbearance programs. I think it’s going to take a while before the banks take the keys.
Eventually the bill will come due and unfortunately unemployment will still be high.
I would tool up on bank owned properties. I know folks who bought after 2008 from banks. It’s a longer process as bank employees are not particularly motivated when it comes to these homes and aren’t too responsive. However, the rewards I am still listening to during cookouts and cocktail parties.
I think winter/spring might be too soon but start googling or meet your local savings and loan manager.
This will be a great Opportunity.
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Don't think either of these are true. Housing prices have not dipped. A big reason is that people don't want to list their house right now, so supply is constricted. Demand is less too, but it hasn't gone down as much as supply.Originally posted by SrslySirius View Post
In regards to securing a loan, banks have more money than they know what do with. After the stimulus package, banks have seen a record increase in deposits.
Even if the economy greatly constricts, housing may take a dip but it won't be comparable to 2008, which was a recession largely driven by a housing-speculation bubbleComment
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Originally posted by SrslySirius View Post
prices should definitely drop, interest rates are a huge x factor, and securing credit might be very problematic.
im not sure i agree with plol's assessment re now vs 2008, to me its very similar and we are already seeing the credit market infected by instability overall, multiplied by 20% unemployment etc. the difference now is that the fed is printing money and buying securities to prop up the machine. but they are indicating that the party's over and banks need to start fattening up for the winter. one way banks fatten up is limiting their credit exposure, and we've already seen them pull back limits on credit cards last month, so its not like its theory at this point.
regarding savings/deposits, per title 30% of americans arent paying rent. and per sanlimar we are weeks from seeing the extra $600 a month vanish. so people are going to be taking whatevers left of their bank accounts if i had to guess.
would be nice if plol is right and im wrong.Comment
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This post makes me happy. It would appear you are still grinding.Originally posted by PLOL View Post
I gotta believe politically Trump & the Republicans have to offer something beyond base unemployment. The rabble will turn on him and he needs friends. you threaten my home or my family’s dinner and I will swear an oath on Trump kinda shit.
but Trump ain’t too bright.
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