sonatines futures trading adventure thread. current expenses: -$689

[sonatine]

aug 13

picked up a uprofit account for $189 because of the suspiciously fast turnaround/withdraw time.

---------------------------------
aug 3
3 funded accounts

1 trial account for a $150k leverage headshot.


-$400 in expenses invested so far


---------------------------------

you know, it is what it is. spent some time researching the best in slot options for funded trading and right now, leeloo's "launch" account seems to have the most bang for the buck.

basically i pay $187, and i am allowed to trade up to 8 contracts on pretty much any futures you can imagine as long as i can string together $3000 in wins without ever dropping $2500 below my highest _unrealized_ profit. so if im in a swing and im up $3000, if the market reverses and my position loses $2501 in value, they cancel my account and i have to pay $100 to reset it.

if i earn $3000+ in more than 10 trading days (i have to trade at least 10 days), they literally hand me an account with $50,000 in it to trade with. as long as i dont drop below a certain profit margin, i basically get to keep trading on their dime. they rake 20% of my profits and i continue to pay $187 a month to cover the cost of the data feed.

its a good deal, but heres where good turns to Fucking Great.

i can register as many accounts with them as i want. so if i want to take an 80 contract position, i just need to string together 10 accounts (which i have the software for). i place an 8 contract bet on one account and the other 9 accounts automatically place the same trade. i pay about $1870 a month in fees. which seems like a lot of money to spend, but a single point on an 80 contract position earns $4000 so yeah, whatevers clever.

anyway i expect many resets and that i will eventually rm this entire thread in a seizure of fury and regret but in the mean time it might be an interesting ride.

[sonatine]

my emotional goal post here is to take a 100 contract emini position using someone elses money.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

me and the boys polishing our TA

[gauchojake]

Heeb that shit up brother

[sonatine]

Heeb that shit up brother

[Sanlmar]

Props Sonatine. (wink)

Rising trailing drawdown is the antithesis of nitty “take profit” scalpers

Very interesting and I’ll be locked into your posts here.

you need to demonstrate a consistent approach - no matter what you read. No smash and grabs for these guys. I believe this to be true

[sonatine]

Props Sonatine. (wink)

Rising trailing drawdown is the antithesis of nitty “take profit” scalpers

Very interesting and I’ll be locked into your posts here.

you need to demonstrate a consistent approach - no matter what you read. No smash and grabs for these guys. I believe this to be true

yeah i spent about a year trying to write an alg for this and ... you know the old story. it works great in a bull market etc etc. my plan is really simple; identity channels and wedges and focus on 2 point scalps on the breakout with a trailing stop, and to look towards momentum crossing over the 122 EMA for longer swings.

its not perfect but if i can keep my dick out of the frying pan by adhering to fast exits when things go wrong, ill be ok i think.

[Sanlmar]

If you leave anything on the table your trailing drawdown gets dinged.... are we in harmony on this?

so if you exit after 5 ticks and it runs 10 ticks you get cancelled.

I have never looked at these sites so I may be wrong but....

[sonatine]

my goal for the next 10 days is just to rack up 3k on paper and avoid drawdowns. yesterday i had a 4.5 point candle collapse on me in seconds which was literally a full drawdown in and of itself, so from a game perspective i need to cultivate small wins while avoiding things like sticking around for the extra 10 ticks only to get wicked down 20 ticks because a hedge fund closed out a huge position. once im in profit, i can technically weather the storm and simply wait for the vacuum to fill. but until then my only job is to close out positions green, not red.

[sonatine]

+417.64 pre-funded.

traded for about 20 minutes after the open. at one point was down about $440, half of which was from banking on a dodgy NQ reversal that turned out to be consolidation into a second leg.

volume feels shit right now. most of the work i did was based off the assumption that once we push through the 4255.17 fib pivot point, we should be moving on to 4272.92 territory and we just never found the momentum. i did recognize that 4255.17 had turned into support so i banged a bunch of longs in there, building quickly into a full 8 con position for about 7 ticks a couple of times, that got me back into the green. but the 4257ish resistance never got cleanly breached so i'm calling it a day.

since then its just been ranging down to the EMA, rejecting, gathering momentum on the upside, then instantly collapsing:



so basically my only real play here would be to say 'oh this is a reversal, we have lower lows and extremely strong resistance so ill just short it down to the 4244 fib' but its technically an up-trending market:




... so id be basically trying to enter the top of a sustained 5 day uptrend. im not feeling the Risk/Reward value here and i pushed my luck plenty already. im 25% over my daily goal soooooo.....

[sonatine]

what a spectacularly dumb dicked market day. we are ranging between about 6.5 points since open. thats no way to live your life, spooz.

[sonatine]

thoughts...

look how utterly shitty todays volume was.

look at spooz banging its head on support, which we broke through on 6/17, which is now possibly resistance.

look at how we have pretty strong bearish gap-downs following days where volume dries up.

if we hit 4265, i expect i can swing up to 4280.

as for the new support...



... super straight forward but with such little volume, i kinda dont feel compelled to get involved. i might put a feeler out tho.

[Sanlmar]

I cleaned the gutters today so our mornings were pretty similar apparently.

I do love this thread.

Some nice tools btw

[sonatine]

historically speaking i could have chosen a better time for this adventure.

Embedded Tweet

[sonatine]

by the by if anyones curious, i use machine learning to determine what the optimal moving average is for any given time frame:

#!/usr/bin/python3

import pandas as pd

import os

import sys

import getopt

import pandas as pd

import numpy as np

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from scipy.stats import ttest_ind

import datetime

import mplfinance as mpf

plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [10, 7]

plt.rc('font', size=14)

np.random.seed(0)

# so we are hunting 5 minute ticks, lets try to focus on 1 hour scalps, so n = 12

n = (sys.argv[1])

print(n)

n_forward = int(n)

#n_forward = 3

name = 'ES'

#start_date = "2/30/2021"

start_date = "6/6/2021"

#end_date = "2021-03-20"

end_date = "6/10/2021"

datafile = 'es.csv'

data = pd.read_csv(datafile, index_col = 'Date')

data.index = pd.to_datetime(data.index)




data['Forward Close'] = data['Close'].shift(-n_forward)

data['Forward Return'] = (data['Forward Close'] - data['Close'])/data['Close']




result = []

train_size = 0.6

for sma_length in range(2,500):



data['SMA'] = data['Close'].rolling(sma_length).mean()

data['input'] = [int(x) for x in data['Close'] > data['SMA']]



df = data.dropna()

training = df.head(int(train_size * df.shape[0]))

test = df.tail(int((1 - train_size) * df.shape[0]))



tr_returns = training[training['input'] == 1]['Forward Return']

test_returns = test[test['input'] == 1]['Forward Return']

mean_forward_return_training = tr_returns.mean()

mean_forward_return_test = test_returns.mean()

pvalue = ttest_ind(tr_returns,test_returns,equal_var=False)[1]



result.append({

'sma_length':sma_length,

'training_forward_return': mean_forward_return_training,

'test_forward_return': mean_forward_return_test,

'p-value':pvalue

})




result.sort(key = lambda x : -x['training_forward_return'])

print(result[0])

print(n_forward)

[sonatine]

its not perfect and by no means do i completely understand it (so no tech support, sorry) but its a handy ace up the sleeve at times.

obviously any values it generates are going to be very much bespoke for the nature of the market snapshot which generated the CSV input.