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bottom line, thats a really strong setup. i feel like im a bit early to the party but the SCOTUS tax decision is pretty much singularly responsible for dragging AAPL down to the blue SMA line. so scenario a) we sink further but are insulated to an extent by all the bad hands being shaken out by the first drop, scenario b) the market recovers and AAPL is in pole position to benefit because nothing thats going on in terms of macro movement is actually going to impact its fundamentals.
also AAPL has a pretty rich history of dipping just below SMA then bouncing back, so i really like this position. again, early, didnt do the confirmation thing, but ive had good luck with banging these gaps with big names. like in the time it took to write this, its already dipped to SMA and bounced back a full dollar. so i feel like money is good here.
spy 314 seems like a reasonable pullback. if we drop below like 310.5 im going to consider bailing on it because its a super short term play and my whole thesis is that the dip was a one time scotus decision related panic sell. if it turns into a broad trend downturn i need to consider getting out of anything expiring tomorrow.
honestly if this was a cash account id probably liquidate all these positions and be happy with going into the weekend up 45%. but i dont want end up going into next weeks positions with no way to exit positions in an emergency.
also anyone wanting to understand the importance of the greeks should take a hard look at that INO long. i'm in the money +4% and its down 30% in value because of VIX shifting in value. so greasy.
INO pushed below support so i made the laydown. SPY looks like its recovering but its on notice. although im more exposed on AAPL, it also has a much longer window to expiration so its going to be less beholden to time decay, will have more time to benefit from brrrrrrrr, etc.
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