Inverted yield curve would agree with you

yet we are poised for a little bounce atm IMO

getting back to your point …. Generally and historically we went to low interest after tech bubble. Then cause we were already low interest we did QE post housing. Trump Fed did asset purchases and even bigger QE.

Maybe, just maybe we buy stocks next time we see trouble. Yeah, pretty sure we do. Cause we are low interest, all QE’d and need another trick. The legality will be sidestepped with the treasury. So maybe we don’t see a fall until we postpone it til much later.

the central theme to always keep,in mind is we must never feel pain. There must never be a correction. Keep kicking the ever growing can down the road.

check out Biden wishing to throw money (stimulus) at meat packers to help bring down surging meat prices with some kind of artificial competition. The free market just ain’t equipped for the job apparantly. So pumping more money despite taper. We just can’t stop trying to manage the market. Mark my words wage and price controls are looming. Crazy you say? America has done this multiple times in the past, besides imagine 2018 self being told what just happened the past 2 years. Crazy my ass.

cheap loans, rental real estate with ever increasing rents. That’s all I know. The rest is guesswork

inverted yield curve is all you need to watch.

i feel like the prodigal son. I have sinned

Morgan Stanley: "Despite the fact that the major US large cap equity indices are down only 5-10% from their highs, the damage under the surface has been enormous and even catastrophic for many individual stocks"


i think thats a really really important statement. because it really does point to the fact that even tho the tree might be standing, its roots are rotting.

honestly no one should be surprised if we limit down at some point early this week.

So if this hypothesis is correct, what would be simple short/long term strategies to capitalize on it?

once you get into intraday / scalping style trades, that question is very difficult to answer if youre jumping in cold. the war is developing a reliable method to generate signals and then developing the discipline to trust them. not to mention, if you have less than 25k in your account you can only place 3 round trip trades a week. so i cant really offer you quick examples without knowing what your budget / risk tolerance / experience is.

long term thoughts = not much different. its all style based.

example;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcAHQSDKkO8

if you want an example of someone who cultivated a keen sense of how to take advantage of a bear market and executed, youll probably not find many better examples.

but its up to you to figure out how he generated his signals or, better still, develop a way to generate your own.

spx 4200 GET