just one mans thoughts of course....:



starting wed of last week we see a break south towards the end of the day... late night / early morning thursday the market starts to recover to the tune of about 70 points but there are just no buyers above 4600 and the bears pressure breaks us down through previous lows with an absolute ton of conviction. and now we arent 70 points up from previous days close, we are 90 points down from previous close. and friday, we see some give/take overnight but we actually see the market open at almost exactly the previous days close, which is again maybe a hint that theres not a lot of buying pressure. and we see short pressure run the market down to 4415 at 10:15am and at that point, shorts start closing out their positions, bulls buy up the cheap long positions and by 11:20am we are just barely edging past the days previous high.

and i think what happens next is really interesting and generally underdiscussed;

so the previous high for the day took place at 5:33am, and it was 4477 more or less.

when price action breaks through the previous high, generally speaking the previous high is considered a resistance point, so to break through it is considered bullish.

lets see how that worked out:



those horizontal red/green bars, those are volume zones. zones that are small and green = limited buyers controlling that zone, large + red = overwhelming sell side action.

the 10 points we move above resistance, theres no sell side pressure. only a small amount of buyers bidding up the price. no institutional money. why? where is it?

after 10 points, we find out. the sell side pressure comes roaring in, institutional money is all short. retail buy side gets stopped out, and the market proceeds to drop 100 points by the time it closes 4.5 hours later.

thats called a 'liquidity grab'. its a real thing. its how institutional money harvests liquidity (and souls for the afterlife) from retail traders basically.

"the market will always do what hurts the most people."

so we close out the week with 3 days of action almost completely dictated by bears. they ran the table. there were exactly zero occasions where buy side pressure mounted any sort of meaningful offensive.

and now lets look at the last 2 days:




you saw the 200 point rally yesterday as an indication that the sell side pressure is capitulating.

im not sure i agree.

i think at 11:15am, shorts exited their positions and buy side forced the remaining shorts to liquidate at whatever price they can get. more or less a squeeze. and from market open at 6pm yesterday to 1pm today, 100 points were taken by a market pretty much entirely in under the influence of sell side pressure.

then, 2 hours ago, we once again see us creep towards the days high.

feels familiar yes? and since i started typing this, we have dropped 20 points.

i mean... look..

if you just feel like the market cant get lower and this is it, bulls are back at the helm, yeah start buying the dip.

im just not convinced. russia is literally challenging us to a war we cant afford in winter. china is telling us not to raise rates 'or else'. covid is not solved. supply chain is not solved. inflation is not solved.

im not a money guy, im a data guy honestly. the market is fractal in its behavior. a 10 point breakout leading to a 100 point drop says to me watch out for the 100 point break out that leads to the 1000 point drop.

as to specifics on where to park money, i cant help you, its just not my cup of tea. i think we have some people here who might offer more light there but im focused on these short term plays so nothing i do translates into roth vs whatever if you know what i mean.

40 points.

50 points.


if you want to bid into this, im just going o respect that you see something i dont.

85 points.

100 points.

honestly this does look like a bullish reversal out of that dip tho.