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starting to cool a bit on futures combines.

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  • starting to cool a bit on futures combines.

    so ive spent a lot of time / effort here waxing poetic over the various futures combines available to traders.

    quick recap; a futures combine is basically when a backer (apex, leeloo, uprofit) fronts you cash to trade futures with.

    the pitch is usually like, for $300 up front total, we give you $100k to trade with and you can trade up to 10 contracts at a time, that sort of thing.

    all you have to do is demonstrate the ability to trade profitably/responsibly by earning a certain amount on a paper trading account ( cost: $150 subscription plus $100 per reset when you fail) and then purchase a live subscription ($150) which gives you access to your funded account.

    and those numbers change of course, if you want to trade a 30 contract account, which they describe as a $300k account, you would be paying $700'ish a month for the subscription. so on, you get the idea.

    this is a quick list of reasons why all that glitters is not gold.

    1) a $100,000 funded account does not have $100,000 in it. all these accounts have something called a 'drawdown' limit. the drawdown is an amount of money you can lose before they lock the account and prevent you from trading on it. that drawdown number is, in fact, how much you are funded.

    the drawdown on a $100k account is about $2100. meaning you can only lose $2100 before they lock the account (or $3000 across multiple days, something like that).

    take a look at this mornings nasdaq ( NQ ) futures chart, these candles are 1 minute of market action;

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2022-01-27 at 10.29.45 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	26.9 KB ID:	8881


    that big red candle i drew a circle around...

    if you were trading a _single_ NQ futures contract, and you bought that little dip at around 9:57am.. 4 minutes later at 10:01am you would be up around $600. and then that red candle would print and you would be down about $800.

    but thats not how drawdowns work in reality. the drawdown counts how far down you are *from your peak profit*. so in reality, in a single fucking minute, you just hit $1400 of your $2100 drawdown.

    if you were trading 2 contracts, you would have been liquidated like halfway through that shift, locked out of the account / prevented from further trading on it, period, full stop.

    my point is this; despite flashing this big $100k number at you, they are actually funding you $2100, not $100k. a traditional responsible risk model for futures trading is never risk more than 5% of your bankroll, meaning on a $2000 bankroll you should never risk more than $100 on your stop-loss. NQ will shift $300 in seconds. literal seconds. its notorious for doing so.

    and ES is definitely less unstable but $2100 is still an _extremely_ small bankroll to work with responsibly if youre not trading single contracts and focusing on really small scalps (eg 1-3 pt profit).

    note: this is called a 'trailing drawdown'. a couple of other combines have drawdowns that dont trail your highest profit point. the drawdowns still exist but in a less immediately restrictive way, and the accounts have other 'gotchas' that compensate for this advantage generally, eg higher bars for passing, more restrictive / more expensive withdrawal fees, so on. we will get into this shit in a moment.

    lets talk about the other psychological microaggressions that are going to be working against you.

    2) you have to reach not one but two profit goal posts before you can even think about cashing out.

    the first goal post is 'passing the gauntlet'. a 100k /10 contract account will typically want you to earn $3000 at least to demonstrate core competency and discipline, AND they want you to trade every single day for 10 trading days total. meaning you have to trade an absolute minimum of 2 weeks before you can 'graduate' your account, regardless of how much money youve made. also remember that its all imaginary money because its a paper trading account.

    this isnt that terrible because you can switch to micro contracts which are worth 1/10th the value of a normal one, and just 'tickle' the account with a tick here or there once a day until you pass for funding. some combine providers tolerate this, some will insist a certain percent of your trades last over 10 seconds, which is an obvious attempt to prevent this exact behavior. microaggressions.

    so no matter what you start trading 2 weeks away from funding but hey lets assume youre wired to just shrug this off. now you get funded. now you have to reach a SECOND profit goal before you can start withdrawing money. its called a 'cushion'. and that trailing drawdown stays on your ass until youre above the cushion, at best. so on a 100k account you have to earn $2500 before the drawdown goes away, but the second you drop under 2499 the drawdown is back on your ass. also, you have to trade five (5) weeks, every single day (25 trading days) before you can withdraw if youre on one of the major popular combines right now.

    so from the day you start, you have to trade 2 weeks, make $3000, then trade 5 weeks, and make $2500 more before you can cash out.

    and we arent done.

    on a 10 contract account, you can only cash out $1000 minimum and $2000 max on your first cash out.

    and your second cash out, which is now after 20 days of trading.

    and your third cash out.

    in fact, from the day you sign up, its going to be up to 5 months before they stop limiting your cashouts, depending on how close you are to the 2 days at the end of the month where you can request your cash out.

    microaggressions.

    3) most combines will give you your first X dollars in profit past the cushion without a withdraw fee. and after that? yeah they rake between 10 and 20% per request.

    those numbers will weigh on you dawg. trust me.

    4) apparently you lose a lot of the tax advantages to trading futures if you work through a combine.

    grain of salt this, im not a CPA, and the laws change a lot but...

    https://www.anthonycrudele.com/show/taxadvantages/

    Capital Gains Advantages. While short-term capital gains from stocks or ETFs are taxed at your ordinary income tax rate, futures are taxed using the 60/40 rule: 60% are taxed at the long-term capital gains tax rate of 15%, while only 40% of your short-term capital gains are taxed at your ordinary income tax rate.
    if you make $500,000 and your normal tax rate is say, 35%... the combine rakes you 10% (at least) for cashout and then the IRS takes their cut, leaving you with $292,000.

    if you make $500,000 trading futures... $300k gets taxed at 15%, and $200 gets taxed at 35%. you take home $385,000.

    so at the end of the day yeah you saved a lot of up front capital risk (maybe) by working through a combine, but between taxes and fees youre giving up about 24 cents on every dollar to do so.

    again, you will be thinking about that shit. while fucking trading. trust me. thats a big, big ask my mellow, being profitable long term while ignoring those sorts of considerations.

    a lot of people are reading this saying 'yeah but im willing to put up with all these little inconveniences and in 5 months i can cash out 10s of thousands of dollars. whats the big whoop?'

    the big whoop is this; you might think youre the person who can do that, but you might not be. and finding out can be MUCH more expensive than funding a trading account with your own capital. no bullshit at this point i consider about 10% of trading to be 'getting into a profitable position' and 90% of trading to be 'dont blow up my account revenge trading because i got stopped out before the market reversed and i missed out on thousands of dollars because of it.'

    when youre trading your own money, a loss is just a fucking loss. when youre trying to get funded or working on a live account, you have so many fucking things stacked up against you being able to cash out that every minor inconvenience feels less like a pebble in your shoe than a knife in your fucking heart.

    yeah i mean, my point is this... in my opinion, combines arent great for learning how to trade and how to cultivate your mind game for trading. they are great opportunities to leapfrog into life changing money if you pursue them from a position of established profitability and strength. but at this point i dont think they are great ways to generate income for people (like me frankly) who are just getting their feet wet.

    i might change my mind tomorrow, mind you. but i cant count how many times ive seen silverbacks in this futures trading scene give out this simple piece of advice; 'just fund your own account and trade up' and right now, im getting their point.

    ymmv.
    Last edited by sonatine; 01-27-2022, 11:59 AM.

  • #2
    Great great post

    Comment


    • #3
      some interesting math... and i think i touched on this in another thread but i dont want to go hunting for it and i have the numbers right here in front of me so;



      the biggest account offered by apex is the 30 contract account with a $7500 drawdown, and it costs $650 a month to qualify for, and $650 a month to subscribe to the live account once you pass.

      so the up front investment is $1300 to get funded, and it takes 5 months give or take before you can make your first substantial withdrawal. pro level traders generally can rely on banking 5 points a day, so lets assume youre not that but youre consistent and profitable and can rely on an average 3 points a day.

      lets set aside the whole drawdown dynamic and assume that you are sticking to 1 contract per thousand dollars, which is absolutely risky but not really a suicide yolo RR ratio.

      you trade every day for 5 months, 3 points a day, with max contracts per position ( 1 per $1000, up to the max allowed; 30).

      after 5 months you have a bankroll of $429,000. apex rakes 10%, you can cash out $386,100, which of course gets taxed at around 35% so your takehome is...

      $251,000. approximately.


      now lets say you decide instead to take that $1300 cash and deposit it with an actual futures broker. lets say ninjatrader.

      ninjatrader allows you to trade up to 200 contracts at a time, and they require $500 cash on hand for every emini contract you take. so again our $1000 per contract RR is real fuckin thin but again its not suicide, its basically a 10 point drawdown per contract before they liquidate your positions. but again lets just use the same math as before to demonstrate a point;

      you trade every day for 5 months, 3 points a day, with 1 contract per $1000 in your account, up to the max allowed; 200 contracts.

      after 5 months you have a bankroll of $1,988,500. there is no rake to withdraw, and because of the advantageous taxes on futures trading, you pay 15% on 60% and 35% on 40%, resulting in:

      $1,531,145 cash in hand.

      and im not even bagging on apex, apex is without question the best goddamned combine deal out there. but seriously thats a lot of fucking money to leave on the table boys.



      Comment


      • #4
        some more gems about apex that are somehow not explained if you dont explicitly ask a rep about them;

        * if your account gets terminated for a rule violation, you forfeit all the profits in the account.

        so, if the 'rules' in question were things like deliberate violations of ethics or abuse issues, ok this would almost make sense i guess if i squint and look at it from the right angle. but one of the rules is closing your position before market close. the reason for it is, if you hold a position beyond that point, the broker marks it as a 'inter day trade', meaning youre holding your position overnight which incurs more potential risk because the market can change radically while youre unable to exit your position. and because futures are all traded on margin generally, that means its your broker assuming the risk.

        so to trade intraday, meaning you close your positions before market close, a broker might demand say, $500 in capital for an ES contract. and if you want to hold that position beyond close, and carry it as an interday position, that number jumps to $1250 capital required.

        if i have $600 capital and i carry my position through market close, my broker will manually liquidate that position and charge me $50 per contract generally as a fee.

        no big whoop.

        but with apex? yeah they will terminate your account and confiscate your funds. period, full stop.

        apex considers market close at 4:59pm ET. and to their credit they have several ways to flatten your positions, including calling a support rep or using their website control panel. but if your power goes out at 4:30pm and stays down for 31 minutes? my man they just closed out your whole ass account and pocketed the profits.

        and gem #2 is why thats so fucking toxic;

        * under the absolute best of circumstances, you basically cannot cash out more than a couple of grand a month from your trading account for 6 fucking months.

        weve touched on this before. if you start a gauntlet on jan 1, you cant 'pass' and get funded until jan 15. then you have to trade for 5 weeks before you can request your first payout, on feb 20.

        so lets assume youre doing the 10contract account, you can take $2k on feb 20. thats cashout #1.

        you have to take _3 more cashouts_ at max 2k each before you can actually access the rest of your profits.

        so march 20, april 20, may 20.... june 20th is the first unfettered cashout.

        and yeah, you can keep 90% as opposed to the usual 80%. but its all pre-tax and its taxed as regular income because they arent considered a real broker, no combine is.

        so if you withdraw $20,000 youre losing 10% up front to fees and about 37% of the rest to taxes;

        $11,340 hits your bank account.

        a broker offering 20% fees?

        $10,080.

        but there are 20% fee brokers out there who will let you cash out on the 1st fucking day of your account going live. in my opinion thats worth giving up the extra 10% in fees you save with apex.



        * gem #3:

        if you either dont make enough to make a withdraw after 7 weeks with apex, or you decide to not cash out so you can keep that capital in play to scale into larger positions safely, you STILL NEED TO CASH OUT FOR 4 MONTHS BEFORE YOU AN MAKE AN UNLIMITED WITHDRAWAL.

        i could not believe my fucking eyes when i saw this hit my inbox.. if you want to build your bankroll for 6 months before you take your first cashout, your limited to the $1000 min/ $2000 max rule for the next cashout and the 3 after it.

        the clock ticks according to actual cashouts, not actual trading days.

        and again the entire time, one (1) broken rule means 100% of your profits are forfeit.

        oh youre in jail and cant trade the minimum days a month or pay your monthly fee? account cancelled, profits forfeited.

        oh youre in the hospital and cant trade the minimum days a month or pay your monthly fee? account cancelled, profits forfeited.



        * gem #4:

        you trade for 11 weeks. youve had 1 cashout and you have $50k profit banked up. and your life hits a speedbump; you have a medical expense, or you need a new boiler, whatever, so you say ok ill request my account be terminated and cashout my 50k.

        yeah no. you arent entitled to that 50k. they will cash you out for $2000 of your $50,000 and pocket the rest.

        again, this was stated to me by a support rep, its not conjecture. you are never eligible to take out more from your account that your next cashout will allow.

        you can have $100k in your account while you sit on the sidewalk begging for spare change. you cant access it until you process 4 cashouts, 1 per month.




        look im not trying to slam apex, im not saying ItS a ScAm. im saying there are layers upon layers of psychological pressure being applied here and this is starting to feel less like prop trading and more like trying to win the ring toss at the carnival.

        i would very much like to see where they make their money because im guessing the profits they make from raking actual valid cashouts are completely inconsequential compared to what they make from resetting gauntlets. id also like to know how much they have made from confiscating funds from terminated funded accounts.

        in the meantime, id suggest anyone interested in getting funding through a combine focus on oneup and earn2trade, and avoid apex / leeloo / topstep / etc until they 100% eliminate or severely scale back their arbitrary withdrawal limits. they serve absolutely no healthy purpose and you have better options out there.

        i expect eventually removing these sorts of bullshit microaggressions will be standard. im already seeing an arms race between combines where they are scaling back the most egregiously predatory rules in an effort to poach each others clients.

        sooner or later they are going to have to offer +EV circumstances.

        or the inevitable class action lawsuits will likely bury them. one way or the other, change is coming.

        but yeah until then, all that glitters is not gold. choose your combine broker wisely.

        Comment


        • #5
          tine im not reading all that shit rn, but just wanted u to know that you’re appreciated.

          Comment


          • sonatine
            sonatine commented
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