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a pretty fucking compelling bear case for the entire tech sector and then some

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  • a pretty fucking compelling bear case for the entire tech sector and then some

    ok so this is paywalled but let me shorthand it

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tech...gnation-2022-4

    you work in IT. youve had your position for years. you know the company inside and out, you know how to deal with outages, you know where to look for documentation, you know what compliance requirements exist and which ones need to be adapted to and which controls are in the process of being updated.

    you see 2 trends in the last couple of years;

    1) resignations. lots. people in jr positions primarily. the usual bullshit is behind it; entitlement, wanting more for less, an industry that seems incapable of finding out an employee is under qualified before they hire them, employees wanting to mine for gold on the fringes of tech eg web3 so on.

    2) the company is now in a position where it absolutely has to fill those positions, so they are now competing for mediocre talent, mandating they raise comp packages.

    and now comes the stinger;

    in addition to everything else you do day to day to keep your employers customers happy, you now have to train junior IT hires who earn more money than you.

    so you do the obvious thing; you fucking quit and work for another company who is willing to pay you 20% more for half the work load.

    problem is, when you leave, all that bespoke knowledge you accrued which was essential for maintaining business continuity leaves with you, and your original employer quickly finds itself staffed by people who literally have no idea how to fix anything once it inevitably breaks.

    oh and heres a creepy little bonus point;

    in the rush to stay 'competitive', every fucking company listed on the nasdaq has hired the most luridly schizophrenic software developers available to keep their products 'competitive' and the majority of them have introduced irrevocable stability/security issues as a result, that can neither be back ported away from or mitigated without a manhattan project caliber approach.

    i think within a few years, we can expect 30% of all listed tech companies shut their doors, with another 30% being sold for scrap to the handful of FANNG adjacent behemoths.




    fucking book it.

  • #2
    Every kid is making 150-240k. Functional dev people with acne

    The headhunters are calling my Tony Hseih graduate kid with offers $30k over. She left her current employer and returned. They unexpectedly gave her another raise weeks after her return.

    Readily admits to working 25 hours a week from home.

    her current employer will give you 2 weeks paid vacation upon hire.

    She makes more than I ever did and she is well under 30.

    Hseih gave that kid a life she never would have had otherwise. she ran good in Vegas. We are all grateful. RIP

    She is ruthlessly banking her dough but insists there is no end in sight.

    my son says NONE of his friends works more than 20 hours a week

    absolutely insane but feels so 2000 to me

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    • #3
      what im scratching my head about is the 'well fuck it ill quit' vibe, like i remember people were going off about how stimmies and rent forgiveness was going to somehow taint the work pool but i dont really think thats relevant because the overwhelming majority of these people dont actually have any savings.

      but yeah lots of 2000 vibes out there. lotta bloomberg terminals getting posted on my timeline with economic indicators i honestly just dont understand and every time someones like 'yeah see this inversion point that just happened? last time that happened was 2000.'

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      • #4
        Personally dirt cheap capital has allowed expansion beyond human capital. That is a 2000 vibe (raising capital via ipo’s then).

        I’ll offer this by way of stimulus checks and great resignation and such. this is a global phenomenon. I swear to you my kid hired a Ukrainian girl just before shit hit the fan there. The ruthless thirst for talent is global.

        too much expansion and not enough talent.

        I’ve written over the years about our business. Obv non-tech but still. We are cashing out in a month. We are done. Not kidding. We will hang around for transition and such but this is THE moment.

        Off topic. Spend a few minutes on Japanese yen and their futile attempt at yield curve control. They are well and truly fucked in their attempt to buy bonds to keep yield low. Yen is cratering. It’s a lesson. Fun times. I can rustle up some stuff but your research skills exceed mine.

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        • #5
          lmao bump

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