I’ve been meaning to make a more detailed post but I’m rarely at the computer. Anyways the Canadian housing market is insane. I live in a semi detached home in a suburb that would easily sell for 700k. Canadian incomes are pretty much on par with usa. And we have 13 percent sales tax. Oh and our gas prices are nearly 8 dollars a gallon.

people 20-30 are really fucked right now if they don’t own a home. And those who did manage to buy a home in the last year will be fucked as interest rates rise (nearly zero right now) and home values eventually depreciate.

and ya even with the depreciated dollar value in Canada the above stats are much higher than usa.

oh ya and my houses value has gone up about literally 70 percent in the last 2 years…. Believe me there will be a big correction coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qce5bbYIGSU&t=373s

This is supposed to start at 6:13, but I don't think this forum has that functionality yet.

Brothers I don’t know much about the housing market and I don’t have much time to find out

brothers one question:

do you believe houses will be more expensive: now, summer, early fall?

brothers what do you think will be the best time to purchase a home in 2022?

i for one would never even dare venture a guess. trying to call top on an irrational, mania fueled bubble is almost impossible.

but if you accept that the housing market is, in fact, an irrational and mania fueled bubble, the answer becomes clear; do not buy until it is not.

if you want a quantitative approach, hire someone to scrape zillow in areas that showed the greatest drop in available listings since 2019.

when you see the number of listings in those hot spots move above the 2019 average monthly numbers, you know the bubble has popped and its a race to cash out, at which point you can start shopping.

The advice that's served me well is that if you are planning on living in the house for more than a few years, there's never a bad time to buy. If you are buying to invest you need to time things, but for a primary residence it's my opinion that the advantages of buying far outweigh the downside.

The house could lose value short term and you may find that you could have bought the same house for 30% less right after you buy it. But long term, it's a winner deal.

I wish I would have kept my first condo and frankly wish I would have bought more real estate over the years. It's been the largest source of wealth accumulation in my portfolio.

home depot says they dont think the housing market is going to unclench its asshole for another 5 years.

pretty sick, like basically an entire generation is going to have to wait a decade longer than they planned to get a house.

also i feel like the hack here is to buy land and build on it maybe? we should suss out the price delta between buying a house at current prices and buying land and building the same house on it. like is lumber still costing fuck you money?

Brother Gaucho sounds look good advice I agree with

brothers I noticed when reading your thoughts many of us think the same but very different as well. I think the way you approach something like this depends a lot on how you were raised but also I lot on how you made your money.

Sonantine is so analytical and calculating with his thoughts I wonder if that is how he lives his personal life. It’s a compliment by the way, I am similar but I am also emotional and impulsive at times but I have got much better at controlling that as I got older and more years in business

I like house hacks on current structures - they are a good strategy for cash flow. I think it's still very profitable to develop land here in LA, the only problem being the time between starting the project and selling. That float will kill a lot of profit assuming you are financing the construction. New construction here will run ~600$/sq ft. Yeah I know...it's stupid. It will probably sell for 1k/sq ft though. Finding qualified contractors is another story.

There are a few things I have encountered (most by luck) that will maximize your investment in the long run. Here are a few in no particular order
- Buy in a large metro area
- Buy near a university
- Buy near a hospital
- Buy homes with large or unusual lot sizes
- Buy in areas that do not have HOA's or CCR's that restrict your personalization of the home
- Buy in areas that have access to public transportation
- Buy in areas where you can add an ADU or other rentable structure

We have been fortunate to live in an area where there's a massive housing shortage and the politicians are rewriting the zoning laws to add units. We bought on a lot that allows for smaller units to be built or placed and rented out. We converted our detached garage into a studio that we are renting for stupid money to travelling nurses and other professionals who need longer term furnished housing. I am basically paying 60-70% of my mortgage with the rental money. I am considering adding a tiny home next to the studio for another rental unit which is legal in LA. Yes I know, it's ridiculous and probably not typical, but that's been my story.

I've been considering finding another house to do the same thing in another neighborhood close to a hospital. The only barrier is that the cost to enter the market is over 900k in most cases.

The condo I wish I kept is renting for at least 3500/mo and would have been about 1k/mo cash flow positive with like 500k in equity. Oh well.

Do you work in the trades Gaucho?

I was told when I was 20 or so to get a multi family to start. Live in one rent the other(s). I hesitated because I had no confidence in my mechanical skills.

many moons later I have no fear. You just figure shit out.

some of the wealthiest guys I know are contractors who got into real estate. Electricians and such. I play tennis with an electrician/real estate investor who at 50 really doesn’t need to work any more but says the money right now in construction is just too good to turn down.

guy has a gaudy big boat in Ft Meyer that only a blue collar guy would own. Lol

No I am self taught with regards to the skills necessary to upkeep or upgrade a home. I grew up around construction but ended up in health care sales. Most of the work I do around the house myself except when the time/money benefit ratio doesn't work for me. It's more of a hobby than anything, but I can handle basic electrical, woodworking, tile, construction, and paint. The good thing is that I know when work isn't being done correctly by the people I hire so I can call them out on their shit.

I've tried to impart this knowledge to my kids but they don't really give a shit, so hopefully they get some of it by osmosis. If anything hopefully they picked up the financial literacy tools I had to learn the hard way.

All of this being said and back to the topic of whether buying right now is a good idea, I would lean towards holding off unless the numbers pencil out favorably and you absolutely needed a place to live.

US New-Home Sales Plunge to Lowest Since Start of Pandemic

• Purchases of new single-family homes fall by most since 2013
• Median price hits a record, though housing inventory improves

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-all-estimates

Mortgage rates are still historically low.
construction (supply) blows
its been tough to get a mortgage

all the movers and shakers like Zuck/Bezos/Musk/Splitthis are moving wealth into land in a big way

its fun for sure but residential real estate is not going to be the headlining act in the tragedy