If we thought the housing market was about to crash, what bets/investments would we make to profit from this?

Aint that the question tho. ive been mulling over that one too. the WOOD etf looks like its ready to take a haircut. anything payday loan oriented would likely be a viable long... camping gear too?

those charts are quite the find

Frightening as every loose nickel I have atm is real estate.

this time it’s different cause inflation ... decade and likely much more of late 70’s style fun. Slow grind up

i mean, the literal million dollar question is when you got your money in.

anyone who bought in the last year is sopping wet they just dont know it yet.

friend of mine is getting super serious about buying in the bay and im getting emotionally exhausted from telling him what hes about to commit to. like he doesnt even care about the money but i feel like hes not properly factoring in what its like to wake up every day and owe the bank 800k on a house he has 400k equity in once the dust settles, including his down payment.

As somebody who wants to buy in a year, I really hope this implodes soon

yeah ive tabled all my property goals until early spring 2022. if i go on a tear ill consider dipping a toe in vegas again because i can pretty much always airbnb out a house 3 weekends a month to cover the mortgage payments, worst case.

I’m sure people who thought the same about Vegas 15 months ago are still trying to scrape their dick off the floor. But otherwise point is valid just have to hope worldwide pandemics don’t become a regular thing.

Interesting chart. I have been keeping an eye on potential defaults because honestly this feels like a bubble that will eventually pop. The underlying market does not seem healthy overall. The govt. Covid relief is propping up many people who are in default and would normally be in foreclosure. It's tough to know how many of these folks are just gaming the system or who will get back on track in the next few months. When interest rates get back to 5 or 6% how many people are going to be in the market for a 1.2MM 3+2 with 1400 sq ft fixer in West LA? I'd say 2 years tops before we see a pretty big correction.

The one crazy thing that I can't quite wrap my head around though is the Air BnB effect especially on 2nd homes. We shall see. I feel like everyone's back up plan is to Air BnB but what happens when every house on the block is competing for short term rentals?

If I was thinking about how to make money on a potential crash I would be short residential REIT's, short on mortgage lenders and banks, short Home Depot and Lowes, short WY, basically anything related to residential real estate. 8.7.1

I felt like property would tank last year once covid hit, was in the process of looking to buy my second house to renovate and either flip or rent out but decided to hold off. Somehow in the past year house prices have still managed to keep on going up, definitely seems like prices are propped up by all the covid relief and once that stops will be interesting to see what happens.

i wonder if there is a long opportunity here with SPG... SPG handles commercial real estate, primarily malls etc, which remains a very covid-suppressed market. i keep hearing talk of rezoning abandoned malls and constructing residential units in them... if SPG holds the paper on those properties, could be a game changer for them.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/30/th...-march-update/

Friend is about to buy his 1st house. Its been a buying frenzy he says, esp in LI so far. He thinks that NY has too much money to have this happen here. Foreclosures almost doubled from 06-08 in NY though

Wall Street is readying to deploy massive fresh capital into the single family rental market.

Outfits like Blackstone have been at this a while. American Nomes & Invitation Homes are two other players I recall. They are readying deals with builders like Lennar for single family new construction that will immediately be assigned to rental.

This whole phenomenon got rolling with Bernanke after the Housing crisis. A way to absorb or shore up the foreclosures etc. The mechanism was built and encouraged. Now we just have massive pools of money looking for good 8-11% return. The spread is too damn delicious. Bonds are getting issued and funds are being closed.

Massive pools of money looking for decent returns are exactly what sparked the pre 2008 run. Pension funds and the like needing returns. Well, here we are again folks. The world is awash in cash or has access to free funds.

Single family homes are going to be removed from the market in a big way. I think 10-12% is already rental and it’s about to get bigger. They aren’t especially picky when it comes to price paid.

while entertaining this thread does a disservice. There is not going to be a tsunami of foreclosures. There is too much liquidity and employment is gonna be fine. Shit will be worked out. There will be pockets of fail but that’s within tolerance.

nobody would lend after the last crash ... that ain’t the problem now ... awash with cash

For me it’s tough to watch as speculation is runnng wild in all markets. I’m strung out in real estate. But I’m finding peace.....

If you aren’t getting 30 year debt at these rates.... it is likely that these rates will be lower than inflation in future years. That never happens before Covid

it’s free money son. You will remember these words. Hopefully, you aren’t haunted by recurring grief until you die. You will never have had such a simple wealth decision.

or like Japan til my dirtnap