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also interesting but true these combines with 'sane' withdrawal policies dont allow you to multiaccount and run up large numbers of contracts with them. go figure. not sure what that means in the big scheme of things but man does it complicate the math. like id love to be able to scalp with 30 cons on uprofit or earn2trade, just not an option. leeloo tho? they will gladly extend me $1m+ worth of leverage as long as im willing to pay for the combines and draw within the lines.
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so based on current Interactive Brokers margin requirements, when the five passed evaluation accounts on apex go live in about 2 weeks, they will have extended me about $800,000 worth of leverage, and when the second batch goes live (if i pass the evaluations of course) i will have a total of $1.6m worth of leveraged contracts.
so yeah the plot thickens. gonna be a wild october.Comment
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Language of Winning
-so what, now what (self talk attitude)
-See a little, see a lot. See a lot, see nothing (mental discipline)
-keep carrying the water till it becomes wine (grit)
-get comfortable being uncomfortable
-don’t just go through it, grow through it
-Change and changeable. Except the unchangeable. Remove the unacceptable.
-all upset comes from comparison.
- I’m not made to break (resilience vs grit)
- grit - my ability to finish something I started (key to success)
- resiliency - my ability to comeback after a setback. (A bigger key to success)Comment
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^ shamelessly lifted from https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000489944088
been really meditating on how i should go about taking trading more seriously. ive been having fun yolo'ing. but one of the only things about poker that can be said with any measure of honestly is; if youre having fun playing it, youre probably playing it badly. and that absofuckinglutely applies to futures.
also ive been doing a lot of statistical analysis of my positions and have stumbled across a curious truism; focusing on trades with longer holding times results in better win rates, but it also requires greater risk tolerance. like i can generate incredibly reliable entry signals on the 60 minute NQ chart that can generate a few 10k+ profit a month positions off a single NQ contract. but very often those positions have to survive pullbacks in the $1000-$3000 range before they turn consistently green. so getting into that style of trading on a combine account is _extremely_ gambly because honestly half my accounts would blow through their trailing drawdown on the first trade.
on the other hand... the half that survived would likely be sitting on 10-15k off that first trade, positioning them well to survive the next big swing.
interesting bit of math right there imo.
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fuck me i was up 3k on each of 4 accounts (short NQ) and ended up getting stopped out / shitcanned because i didnt catch the debt ceiling news.
still and all, shit was going well there for a minute.Comment
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goddamned i was in the matrix for a minute there tho.
by the by im looking at taking some classes on orderflow. what im doing is like flying one of those redbull trick planes with one eye shut to eliminate depth perception. understanding orderflow and factoring it into positions in real time is like piloting a gulf stream.
but hoooo fuckin nelly i hit some switches today before shtf.Comment
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was thinking about how nav never used stop-losses when trading. did some quick math...
it costs about $500,000,000 USD to move $SPX 1%, which is about 40 points on /ES.
retail traders tend to rely on fairly straight forward indicators/criteria to enter positions.. and market makers are notorious for something called 'liquidity grabs', which is where you juke the price of the futures to trigger stop losses on retail traders then sit back, let the price recover, and suddenly all those retail losses are your gains.
so if you see price rebounding off a support or resistance line with complimentary MACD / RSI, you can be absolutely sure that millions of dollars of retail money is about to ape into the reversal.
so what do you do? you flood the market with about $100m of contrarian positions, which immediately takes the market 8 points in the opposite direction within a half second or so. the retail money gets stop-lossed out of their positions, which you grab at the discounted price, then the market absorbs the movement almost instantly because volume and you can either sell all those discounted positions at market value a second or two later or just hold them through the same swing the retail traders anticipated for a few more million in profit.
moral of the story; find less obvious spots to move into or be prepared to defend your thesis against very real market manipulation. which can be a super expensive hobby if youre not facing market manipulation but an actual whole ass reversal against you.Comment
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some real gems in here;
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pushed latest algorithmic trading engine online this morning on a test account with uprofit; if it clears 6k in profit they will fund and it will start trading live/cash. trading single contract NQ positions. hands totally off, if it dies it dies. but its been pretty consistent in backtesting with a low VIX sample period. obviously the first few trades are critical; NQ is a complete psychopath and can blow up the account with one big lurch in the wrong direction. so hopefully it will bank some profits for a bit of a cushion before we get truly stress tested.
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solid morning session. im not completely sure why it exited that last trade where it did. im not complaining, we got the majority of the meat off that trades bones there and thats all i can ask. but im wondering if theres a logic error someplace because nothing i saw in the signals said it should have dumped there.
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yyyo.
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note to self:
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