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h-hey guys? the housing market is about to do a fucking thing

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  • #31
    We just keep spinning the same story with different characters. I feel like we maybe took a page out of the Chinese playbook though on this latest go round. Print money, devalue currency, prop up markets artificially, ????, profit.

    I just need to know how to make my kids the first time buyers so I can get some of that free money.

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    • #32
      Click image for larger version Name: BB56DE2D-AD86-4F2C-9CA6-D2F267433CB1.jpeg Views: 182 Size: 108.9 KB ID: 5662

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      • #33
        Freddie & Fannie are tightening up their standards in preparation for the biggest IPO of all time.

        several recent court cases reject the CDC’s authority over evictions and foreclosures. Pack your bags

        I hope I’m right & I do miss the markets.

        Fed has absolutely missed the fucking boat on inflation. Straight retarded. Something is seriously wrong with them.

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        • #34

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          • #35
            I can’t afford a house at 2.8% so there’s an adjustable for 2.4%

            Here we go

            also Yellen saying shit yesterday about rates and inflation that she immediately had to walk back. Tick tick on the increase

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            • #36
              steel 3x normal cost apparently.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by sonatine View Post
                steel 3x normal cost apparently.
                was looking at that last night. There is no core increase in usage so as supply comes online it could drop nicely or so one outlook goes.

                what exactly is the Fed looking at when they talk about inflation. When they catch up.... buckle up if you’re on margin.

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                • #38
                  Goldman is predicting near-parabolic home prices through 2024 followed by a crash that will make 2007/2008 look like a minor correction.

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                  • #39
                    If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund
                    Yield-chasing investors are snapping up single-family homes, competing with ordinary Americans and driving up prices

                    https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-...nd-11617544801

                    The term “permanent capital” means these houses will never be sold. Ever. The investors have almost none of their own money in the deal.

                    It shouldn’t be necessary but when you see a reference to 12% annual appreciation remind yourself that houses/mortgages are the most leveraged deals legally available. There is nearly no money down.

                    it’s gonna get crazy

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                    • #40
                      yeah im seeing the absolute worst takes about blackstone on the timeline. also im furious because they dont offer to buy homes in my area.

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                      • #41
                        honestly think housing will cool off by early next year. Home prices in the DC metropolitan area peaked 4-6 months ago and have seriously plateaued as of right now. Obviously this is anecdotal, but it doesn’t seem like new listings near me are attracting multiple bids.

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                        • #42
                          GS is talking about 2024 as their model peak but i agree it will likely come sooner. blackstone, honestly, is kind of a wildcard tho...and also when we talk about the broader housing market we tend to forget that the overwhelming growth area is houses, not apartments, because apartments were basically disease ridden tombs during the recent plague and thats why everyone started snatching up houses. im not sure if thats a normal thing ( the delta between home prices and apartment prices ) but right now its telling a very important story about where the projected growth really is.

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                          • #43
                            The commercial and institutional investors snapped up 14.9%, or roughly one in seven, of all home sales.

                            my premise is that these investors never sell - supply diminishes over all time frames

                            sure multiple bids and other super heated frenzy will cool but RE will remain very strong.

                            another great angle is that many home builder are going BK. They took orders at a fixed price and costs exploded in the interim. another supply issue.

                            meanwhile I think I need to replace a 100A electrical service panel. There is literal arcing between a breaker and the Buss bar. The sizzling sound was helpful while troubleshooting. Buss bar is burned & pitted and there are no spare slots. Renter fatalities are bad for business.
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                            • #44
                              more data:

                              https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...es/7594826002/

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                              • #45
                                word around the campfire is the fed is backing blackrock's play (buying up single family houses at way more the fair market, like WAY more) to prop up housing prices once the eviction moratorium ends.

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