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h-hey guys? the housing market is about to do a fucking thing

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  • #16
    Well there we go ... this is what I’ve been awkwardly trying to spell out.

    The Wall Street Journal ran this story Easter

    If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund

    Yield-chasing investors are snapping up single-family homes, competing with ordinary Americans and driving up prices

    I know you have special powers Sonatine. If you could post this article here for PLOP - I’ll comment on it when I have a moment shortly

    my first reflex is the notion that the fallout from the Great Recession will never leave us. We chose not to cleanse. Bernanke created a new asset class in his attempt to have Wall Street soak up the foreclosures after the crash.

    government financial meddling always has unintended consequences. for plop there will be a decline in home ownership from the current 68% or whateverthefuck the metric is. Prices go up.

    it’s fun and rich white folk gonna bank but things are really really whack. we have suffered the consequences politically and it’s gonna get more real day to day.

    sorry plop... don’t wait

    Comment

    • Baron von Strucker
      #16.1
      Baron von Strucker commented
      04-05-2021, 02:44 PM
      Editing a comment
      This has been going on in Vancouver for the last 4 + years and getting even more crazy, have been in the same house (basically a box with windows) for 26 years have no plans to move our kids will have it some day. all around us houses get bought tits and lipstick and sold for huge profit. a house next to me sold 3 years ago for 795 and after shitty reno sold for 1.390.000 makes me sic. our best friends who live a block away are about a week from listing there house they bought 30 years ago for ~400k are looking at bidding war up to 2.000,000 + we hate to see them leave but god dam.... this shit is on fire. our neighbour hood is getting filled up with pretentious snobs pretty funny to be honest. our cabin in blane WA we haven seen for more than a year is getting cash offers monthly, we not selling tho unless border permanent closes

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/hou...owns-1.5973134
  • #17
    Boomers have seen housing mania repeatedly and that’s swell. What’s important this time is that there are huge new buyers soaking up the inventory. These are buyers who never existed before.

    Additionally, and as per the article, builders would prefer not to fuck around with retail if given a choice. Margins are better to the institutional buyer. What business wants to fuck around with your wife liking the white marble and the next house likes granite? Build them all the same and rake the better margin on scale. That is to say DL Horton doesn’t want to build your house. Not if they have a choice.

    It’s cash and all the appraisals and inspections and bullshit disappear.

    Seeing days like this on Wall Street and being in a different asset class stings but you can’t leverage up on filthy cheap margin like you can in housing.

    I trust the process and day drink.
    • Likes 1

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    • #18
      I wonder what effect 3d printing will have on this strat. I am legit thinking about buying some land and dropping some cash on a printed home.

      Here are some more resources that describe Sannies sentiments

      https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...ew-competitor/

      https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...street/582394/

      And an interesting one on 3d printed homes in the desert

      https://www.livabl.com/2021/03/first...ho-mirage.html



      • Likes 1

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      • #19
        its been my experience that every single (and i mean literally every single) 3d home / rapid fabrication tiny home initiative i read about is pure vapor and probably a decade plus away from the 'retail' market so to speak.

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        • #20
          Originally posted by sonatine View Post
          its been my experience that every single (and i mean literally every single) 3d home / rapid fabrication tiny home initiative i read about is pure vapor and probably a decade plus away from the 'retail' market so to speak.
          I don't know man these guys at Mighty Buildings seem like they are pretty legit. I guess we will see what happens with this Palari development but they are/were sold out for the 15 or so homes that they have planned. Looks like they are taking deposits still.

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          • #21
            nature abhors a vacuum so maybe they are actually going to be the first to come to market? heres to hoping. im a huge fan of disrupting the housing construction market, i think its ripe in every conceivable way.

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            • #22
              like real fucking talk i should be able to get a very simple, very sound 3000 sq foot construction sorted for about 200-250k once you cut out the professional middlemen / grifters.

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              • #23

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                • #24
                  What could go wrong????
                  • Likes 1

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                  • #25
                    Saw an interesting fractional ownership group today called pacaso

                    I guess everything old is new again just techy -er
                    • Likes 1

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                    • #26
                      faint chanting is heard from the edge of reality, home of unimaginable dull things, beings of pure greed and stupid squashed into a singular point...

                      ...wework, weWORK, WEWORK....

                      a god shaped hole, the last dying breath, a hand scribbling formulas in blood on a feces caked wall....

                      ....*SoftBank to Invest $500 Million in Better, Sources Say *Investment Values Mortgage Startup at $6B, Sources Say *SoftBank to Buy Shares From Existing Investors, Sources Say

                      ...The end is near....

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                      • #27
                        Powell getting the ink this week and I start thinking about OPERATION TWIST.

                        A quick search brought up a 2011 Planet Money piece. Brought a smile. Last time it was used. Then Pimco’s Bill Gross, who is short longer maturities, pops up. There’s also Peter Schiff. Hmmmm

                        I’ll scare up something good. Operation Twist is fun times.

                        wealthy folk know how to use debt. especially fixed debt. we want to be like them. RH margin ain’t that

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                        • #28
                          So I found this explanation of Operation Twist.

                          This kid gives the greatest practical explanation of the yield curve I’ve ever seen in one place. It’s actually entertaining.

                          skip the first 3 min of overhead



                          interest rates and the desire to defeat the free market in bonds is the only story of our times. the rest is consequence. The shame is that the pace of this game is slower than baseball.
                          Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-14-2021, 05:16 PM.

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                          • #29
                            From the land of unintended consequences.....

                            Biden’s proposed first time homebuyers grant is climbing from its original $15,000 to $25,000.

                            Between you and me that just increases the demand side. Rocket fuel for prices. I like that.

                            In a rational world you want to increase supply. Don’t tell anyone but supply is the problem. Maybe you give a break on real estate capital gains and folks who wouldn’t part with a property might elect to now sell.

                            oh who am I kidding, there is nothing anyone can do to counteract the avalanche of cheap money that was let loose on assets.....

                            also.... i forgot about BOA’s $17,500 grants for would-be homebuyers. That’s $42,500 combined free.

                            I think I see Michael Burry warning about the Fed making changes to how M1 & M2 (money supply) are measured. He might call it a cover up .... I think the money supply is just too harsh a reality right now. It’s for our own good. Maybe we just call a bank holiday someday to smooth shit out. I’m amused as hell but I gotta get with the program and accept this as real at some point.
                            Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-21-2021, 02:49 AM.

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                            • #30
                              Late night thinking.

                              so you give people free money to buy something they otherwise can’t afford. which is what you want them to do. You (the government) want them to take the grant.

                              we come full circle.... housing IS gonna do a fucking thing. there will be foreclosures by new owners who really aren’t funded for all the expense of home ownership, It’ll just take a few years. Maybe real estate taxes go up. AI takes their job. There is always a catalyst. It’s 2007’ish for sure.

                              okay we solved this .... time to examine how fucking Corbin Burnes for Milwaukee is just minting money. Wish I unleashed huge units today. the nit life

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