world war 3 thread

[gimmick]

Well few things come to mind.

1. Russia is broke.

2. They got hit by covid harder than any other country.

3. They're running out of time to capitalize on their successful campaigns from 2015-2016 in UK and US.

4. They misread how much damage the stable genius did with his exceptional foreign policy.

5. China isn't a guaranteed plan B for them.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

the reason, apparently, that we arent going for the SWIFT sanctions is because so many EU banks hold russian debt on their books.

[sonatine]

im long too. up 98% on spy calls so far and i think im going to hold until just before market close.

[Sanlmar]

I gotta fade Biden’s hate speech here. Been nerve racking long

[sonatine]

i suppose its worth pointing out that once we kick russia out of SWIFT, we run real low on non-kinetic means to influence russia's behavior.

[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

This is what concerns me the most at the moment and leads me to question Putin's mental stability. Just seems extremely reckless for him but then again it may simply be a natural extension of his unchecked behaviour over the past few decades. He's destroyed what little Russia had of its reputation and will take generations to repair.

when i squint and look at this from the right angle, it seems like hes taking a page from our iraq invasion playbook to bolster the very russian mindset that ukraine is a breakaway republic and not really a sovereign nation. on top of which, russia needs odessa as a port. plus with all the noise we are making about going after russian gas pipelines, suddenly the ukraine pipelines are that much more essential.

and again theres the theory that through good old fashion espionage, he knows exactly what our internal policies are regarding a response to aggression against ukraine.

but it begs the question; did he know what this administrations policies are, or did trump simply tell him point blank 'america doesnt give a shit what you do with ukraine'.

he wouldnt be the first dictator to get fucked proper by american whimsey; when saddam invaded kuwait we literally told him, exact words if i recall, that an invasion of kuwait would not be considered an american concern. so he invaded. and we kicked his fucking teeth in for it.

this feels like shades of that, as well as us just making up a bunch of absolute horse shit about WMDs to justify _our_ invasion later on.

but its crazy because we spent like a week saying this is whats coming, dont fall for it. so for him to be like fuck it im pot committed... i really think he either completely misread the room regarding our willingness to drop the hammer over this, orrrrrrrr he crunched the numbers and realized that russias future without odessa and ukrainian fuel resources is uncertain and not invading was possibly a greater existential threat than invading and ripping off the bandaid.

[betcheckbet]

looks like we are going to cut RU banks off from SWIFT completely. its becoming less clear what putin thought he was gaining from this shit. related note, all those US made javelin missiles arent going to waste; ukraine has apparently have 'neutralized' about 15 tanks so far.

This is what concerns me the most at the moment and leads me to question Putin's mental stability. Just seems extremely reckless for him but then again it may simply be a natural extension of his unchecked behaviour over the past few decades. He's destroyed what little Russia had of its reputation and will take generations to repair.

[sonatine]

looks like we are going to cut RU banks off from SWIFT completely. its becoming less clear what putin thought he was gaining from this shit. related note, all those US made javelin missiles arent going to waste; ukraine has apparently have 'neutralized' about 15 tanks so far.

[sonatine]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...n-Ukraine.html

[sonatine]

not really looking to doompost but honestly its wild that we live in an age where footage like this can be delivered basically in real time:

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[sonatine]

"NOT WAR" is the chant in St Petersburg.

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