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81 rubles to the US dollar was the pre-invasion value and the current value is 178 rubles to the dollar.
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Belarus just voted to allow Russian nukes on its soil, basically allowing Russia to launch a nuclear proxy war.Comment
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Waiting for Putin to start claiming that Western forces are actively engaging in fighting and use it as further justification for threatening nukes.
As much as I'm happy about this embarrassment I'm concerned it will only further serve to aggravate Putin lead to him to lash out more.Comment
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Also seeing very few Russian players on my cash tabels at pokerstars...Comment
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Asian oil buyers hunting for more Saudi Crude on crisis fears.
-Bloomberg
Asian stocks drop,as Traders Mull Fed plans amid Ukraine tension
-Bloomberg
now I don’t have to play a single hand but trying to sift fact from fiction and suss out some possible scenarios is what we do
Nasdaq was down within a whisker of 3%. This has been quite the catalyst for popping the risk on bubble of the past two years. Again we circle back to the Fed.
there isn’t a market that isn’t affected. Wanna play wheat? (Black Sea region important and likely boycotted.)
oil prices kill anticipated growth?
two banks restricting China letters of credit for the purchase of Russian commodities. The China/Russia coalition is key. If that unravels I become unraveled because I cannot fathom where that leaves Putin. Unless someone (US);extends Putin an “out” he is capable of anything.
Russia bans foreigners from selling Russian securities…. Hmmm
short the yuan…. ObviousLast edited by Sanlmar; 02-28-2022, 12:44 AM.Comment
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we arent out of normal ranging yet, in fact we arent even below fridays lows. we just shed that huge exuberant rush after biden made us feel like we might not die in a nuclear apocalypse.
covid cost us either 32 or 38% off highs, i forget which and i dont feel like looking. we are barely 22% off highs as of friday close. so we can lose another 10-15% before we can even start to wonder if ww3 is priced in, which clearly it isnt.
lotta easy money waiting to be made if we live through this. weekly ITM QQQ calls spreads at +20% per for 6 months and you can 80x your money and thats seriously not a typo.Comment
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So while there will no doubt be a speculative attack on the ruble in the hopes of driving up Russian inflation … there is NO BAN ON RUSSIAN EXPORTS
In rubles the exports are worth more. Hmmmmm & wtf
if you could forward this message to your Washington contact - which is to say something isn’t as it appears - some degree of theater hereComment
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right now the only thing anyone is really concerned about is providing russia an off-ramp. no one _wants_ russia to go to zero because the party line, literally, in russia right now is why shouldnt they obliterate the world if a world without russia?
and where shit gets suuuuper tricky is that not only are european nations contributing fighter jets but... some of them are being flown by european pilots. meaning european nations are about to go kinetic against russian forces.
so yeah.... close your eyes and imagine off-ramps.Comment
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Russia sets ceiling for exchange rates to prevent a crash: 101 rubles for 1 Euro, 90 rubles for 1 U.S. dollar
ok or hear me out or stop invading neighbors.Comment
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Was listening to former nato commander today. He basically said that Russia has been extremely restrained likely because of wanting the Ukrainian people on their side. But with the way things are going it’s quite possible they will lose that restraint and go full out causing major casualties. He stated that the actions around nukes are especially concerning and not common.
he also talked about expecting some major cyber attacks on financial systems in the west through Russian hackers as they likely won’t accept what’s been done to their economy.
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things feel like they are getting very polarized in terms of how this moves forward. door #1 is putin basically adhering to russian military doctrine and rolling out increasingly levels of violence, starting with the thermobarics on soft targets and moving up to battlefield nukes if his objectives cant be met without them. the x factor to all this is that the overwhelming majority of the rich and powerful around him do not want to live in a country thats already being reduced to another north korean hermit kingdom. and i think weve been very careful to _not_ go after their holdings (eg: London real estate) because we want them to have some skin in the de-escalation game. but its honestly not clear what they can do because putin, through various "constitutional amendments" has become not just a leader but the entire russian state made flesh. the assertion that anyone can just invoke some legal means to be rid of him is not realistic, and theres also the question of what would hold russia together in his absence. fingers real fuckin crossed tho.
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