world war 3 thread

[Sanlmar]

We need to plan several moves ahead

surprising candid for LA Times


https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...ussia-invasion

[sonatine]

honestly tho russia done goofed.

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[sonatine]

[Sanlmar]

These are trite examples but this could end up being Russia’s Vietnam or Afghanistan.

it will morph in surprising ways.

the US needs to be very careful with its undercover shenanigans lest embarrassment and recriminations ensue

[sonatine]

imagine being a russian teenage conscript soldier and seeing this on the timeline:

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[sonatine]

These are trite examples but this could end up being Russia’s Vietnam or Afghanistan.

it will morph in surprising ways.

the US needs to be very careful with its undercover shenanigans lest embarrassment and recriminations ensue

yeah i keep wondering how ukraine gets a bead on those IL-76s.

btw if you figure every soldier has an average 1 year of military training, 1.27 million man-hours of training just bled out onto ukrainian soil.

[betcheckbet]

As much as I want to believe this it doesn't make any sense and reeks of propaganda.

Ukraine claims they have only suffered 200 casualties. and yet somehow they've inflicted this much damage (15 times the causalities) in a war that has largely been fought by distance so far with Russia the primary aggressor? We've seen very little proof of actual guerilla warfare which is when I would expect such fatalities to occur on the Russian side.

[sonatine]

As much as I want to believe this it doesn't make any sense and reeks of propaganda.

Ukraine claims they have only suffered 200 casualties. and yet somehow they've inflicted this much damage (15 times the causalities) in a war that has largely been fought by distance so far with Russia the primary aggressor? We've seen very little proof of actual guerilla warfare which is when I would expect such fatalities to occur on the Russian side.

entirely valid concerns. im also not sure where the IL-76s fit into this. but at the end of the day, we are talking about russian conscript forces engaging against a fortified enemy on their home soil with state of the art weapons. and the IL-76s retail for what, 50m a piece? so theres real problems for russia here even if these numbers are massaged.

[sonatine]

from a ukranian friends fb feed:

Trump tried to bribe him to blackmail Biden.
Putin was hovering over the country in order to betray the country.
The United States offered to evacuate, but he said that "it's a war and he needs ammunition, not escaping."
Politicians turn into clowns, clowns become heroes..
Putin has not yet realized how he, hiding in a bunker and afraid to approach his own citizens without a crowd of guards, looks now against the background of Zelensky.

[sonatine]

based.

[sonatine]

regarding the veracity of the casualty numbers;

thats what, 6 tanks down in one engagement? crew of 3 in each? 100+ tanks isnt unreasonable but lets cut that number in half for the sake of conversation. so thats 150 casualties. 2 IL-76s = 600+ casualties but its super unlikely they were packing low end (290 people per) while going into a war zone but whatever. even if we slash half the armored vehicle numbers, assuming we have a crew of 4 in each thats another 800 casualties so we have 1500+ dead russian soldiers on the books and we havent even got into the jets, helicopters, and teenage conscripts who literally got tricked into showing up.

like honestly that 3500 number, even if its inflated, its not politburo math style inflated.

the russians are getting their asses handed to them by a motivated forces with CIA special tactics training that started in 2013/2014.

i generally regard cynicism as healthy when it comes to data like this but i think if you zoom out and consider the disparity between the ukrainian and russian battle postures, and that russia clearly went into this expecting to roll straight to odessa the exact same way the taliban rolled into kabul, and that the only thing they could possibly do when that blew up in their faces was try to overwhelm the ukranian forces with sheer numbers...?

like honestly i absolutely acknowledge that all the footage im seeing and narratives im reading could be pure psyop, but it just doesnt smell that fishy to me when i look at the big picture here.

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[betcheckbet]

Totally hope you are right.

[sonatine]

honestly ive seen so much footage like this, it really does lend itself to the theory that putin never imagined significant resistance here:

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[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

from a ukranian telegraph channel;

“Russian forces in occupied Donetsk are handing out gas masks to its troops and local militants”


this shit might be about to take a real fucked up turn.

[sonatine]

at the risk of optimism we seriously might be seeing the beginning of the end of putin's russia.

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