the new hotness in the housing market gamma squeeze is people purchasing homes without inspections.


cool.. cool...

The forebearance numbers are cleaning up unexpectedly well. If memory serves, 23% of those who participated never missed a payment.

Maybe another 25% rolled stuff forward etc etc.

no big glut of supply forthcoming.

the articles are out there

I was wrong about Helocs. Easy peasy. Not tight. Taking the housing appreciation and buying vacations and trucks like it was 2005/6 all over again. Human behavior and cycles. Interest rates are vastly different now vs then however.

soooo ... pop?

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apparantly he’s a subscriber too …. stay alert & be worried

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With reference to the repo above … consider the following in the context of real estate … what is happening in Canada demonstrates the effect of monetary policy vs fiscal policy.

the rates of appreciation in Canada makes what has transpired in the past year in the States look downright dull. But the Fed is working hard to catch up.
I draw comfort from this.

What happened after 2008 was just inflation of asset prices because of QE. And because there was no fiscal policy, there were no real investment opportunities for banks or private capital. So a lot of capital was directed toward housing, art, superyachts. There’s a similar dynamic at play in Canada right now.

fiscal policy creates demand that mops up excessive capital.

Canada doesn’t have any industry to speak of so it’s all monetary policy like 2008. Assets like real estate get straight retarded and they are, of course, unsustainable as we have learned previously.

monetary policy like repo and reverse repo and 3 card monty…. ain’t never gonna end … until it does.

be careful about comparisons yoy and all that ….. going from 120mph to 75mph means you’re still flying.

as well, gubmint protecting the country’s homeowners backstops the institutional investors and landlords. This realization by the Blackrocks of the world is kinda beautiful

not worried until we lose a retaining wall

https://www.reuters.com/business/fit...ts-2021-09-15/

well well well...

zillow is no longer purchasing homes, has massively overextended itself, and is dumping inventory at an L.

From 2019. ^^^^^

Eisman wears Big Shorts to hide his big swinging dick

friend of mine works at zillow, i asked him about this.

the party line over there is that this _would have worked_ except for one thing... a huge part of their markup equity was based on those bullshit renovations they hired contractors for.

and guess what? covid supply chain issues queered all that. the contractors couldnt do half assed renovations so they figured they would just ride it out because.. and here comes the punch line... there were like 70 managers involved in that decision and none of them wanted to be the guy to tell the room that the big shiny quants in the ML team hadnt considered this and they should all just kiss off a big chunk of their bonuses and unwind inventory regardless.

Precisely that Sonatine.

I have also heard, “houses are not a fungible asset”. Every one is different and has different circumstances. Maybe you cannot do big deals like you are trading grain or pork bellies.

I just liked the term “fungible” applied to houses.

but yeah supply chain

So much juicy stuff I missed while I tuned out. Head exploding trying to absorb it all. Fun

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