General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[sonatine]

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-84

"Unfortunately, we’ve seen a recent string of cases in which derivatives and complex products have harmed investors across market sectors."

im sure this time CDOs wont obliterate the market for years.

[sonatine]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SOTd378jlE

[Sanlmar]

dip buyer genocide. a generation lost

sell the spike

can you beat inflation with interest rates below the inflation rate?

[sonatine]

i cant find an options play on this that pays out better than about 4.8 to 1 and thats providing i nail the bottom more or less perfectly.

if you just launch into a few barely OTM put spreads once we hit that top boundary, youve basically binked 8-1 payout if you hit 3 in a row.

honestly i might be just going around this all wrong but IV just seems kinda fucked up these days, i dont know.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

meanwhile at jp morgan....

[sonatine]

we are officially in a bear market. first one in 13 years.



oh also



subprime loans are starting to default.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-su...ts-11652952602

[onestep]

The amount of ppl tho that have mortgages that they cant afford pales in comparison to 2008 when you could have gotten a house with ANY job

[Sanlmar]

Subprime in this context is being used to describe credit cards and car loans for marginally credit worthy borrowers. People,are,skipping payments. It’s the first step down the escalator.

they will be missed as they were present on the demand side


This isn’t a mortgage thing yet

[sonatine]

Subprime in this context is being used to describe credit cards and car loans for marginally credit worthy borrowers. People,are,skipping payments. It’s the first step down the escalator.

they will be missed as they were present on the demand side


This isn’t a mortgage thing yet

this is exactly the case. somewhere around here san and i have been absolutely going batpiss crazy over the automotive subprime loan market which i will totally scrape up for you onestep because oh my god those chickens are coming home to roost.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

The amount of ppl tho that have mortgages that they cant afford pales in comparison to 2008 when you could have gotten a house with ANY job

youre absolutely right and i dont want to take away from that but its worth noting that there are more things more in common with 2008 than there are differences.

- anyone who has bought a house in the last 24 months has very likely purchased at 50-80% over (real) market value.
- CDOs and other obscure force multiplier derivatives are fucking everywhere right now
- there is an absolutely astounding amount of margin/leverage racked up behind both those over-valued mortgages and the derivatives market AND of course the retail trading markets, which the overwhelming majority of fresh faced post college wanna be venture capitalists have embraced as some sort of (lol) safe haven because they literally have never seen a market trend down in their adult lives (<-----IMPORTANT)

subprime credit is the weakest hand so its by no means surprising that they get shaken out but they are also the very absolute very obvious tip top of a pyramid thats ready wipe trillions with a t off the table.

[sonatine]

please be advised that wall st journal farms this site for content.

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[Sanlmar]

Not sure I shared the treasure map here. ES 3760 ….. let’s see where we are tonight. Of course, it’s no secret technically so I’m dying to see what kind of shake and bake they cook up. Gap up or gap down and reverse? It will require you’re being one with the market. Use some smelling salts to clear your head pregame