General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[sonatine]

finding this pretty fascinating.

queen yellen urged biden to scale back the covid stimmies because she was worried about.. wait for it... inflation.

and because we are a comic-sans flavored banana republic of a country with virtually non-existent safety nets / functional infrastructure, her advice wasnt even seriously considered because the only way we can address any sort of crisis is to literally print more money.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iographer-says

[Sanlmar]

$1.3 vs $1.9 ? The difference was immaterial at that point. The article reminds us that Trump pumped $3t. This is forgotten in smooth brain narratives.

Irrespective of the need to provide for people during lockdowns such printing was not going to occur without a cost down the line.

As a aficionado of economic central planning I’m 100% gonna get the biography. I had kind words for Yellen during the Trump admin but her public face apparently differed from her private and that is interesting.

Speaking of central planning, I have a whole riff about CBDC and SWIFT percolating in my head. We ain’t seen nothing yet when it comes to central planners pulling strings. The speed of change is breathtaking

[sonatine]

@sanlimar yeah i dont know shit about her but she seems fundamentally competent, which sets her so far apart from her gov peers that my affection is borderline romantic. also i more than half wonder if her becoming a lightening rod for the inflation regret vibes is a deliberate orchestration to draw fire from the real issues at bar, and perhaps the partisan hackery that prevents them from ever scabbing over and healing.

[sonatine]

a pretty fucking intense history of the credit market:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-Q9AOp2FW8


honestly what blew my mind hardest (and there was a lot of mind blowing) is that some of the abandoned houses after the 2008 implosion were effectively unable to be condemned, reclaimed, whatever because actual ownership had been passed through so many layers of obsfucation during investment allocations that they were essentially untraceable.

like whole neighborhoods were essentially polluted with house corpses that no one could legally clean up.

never heard about that before.

[Sanlmar]

I’m buying this doc sight unseen. thx

[sonatine]

finding this pretty fascinating.

queen yellen urged biden to scale back the covid stimmies because she was worried about.. wait for it... inflation.

and because we are a comic-sans flavored banana republic of a country with virtually non-existent safety nets / functional infrastructure, her advice wasnt even seriously considered because the only way we can address any sort of crisis is to literally print more money.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iographer-says

lmaooooo aaaaaand shes denying it ever happened now



https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-...86621?mod=e2tw

[Sanlmar]

[sonatine]

in her defense, that was pre covid / pre ww3.

[sonatine]

black: 90 day bank bills (IR) - measure health of banks
blue: 3 year treasury bonds (YT) - measure health of the united states government

[Sanlmar]

T bonds is just deleveraging but it is a thing

[Sanlmar]

Harvesting the organs of dip buyers

[Sanlmar]

I’ve posted previously my curiosity at Berskshire’s enormous weighting (50%) AAPL. Especially with the strong dollar but admitted my understanding of that aspect of their business was beyond me. Just felt bad.

Yesterday I took note of AAPL GOOG AMZN charts and my negativity became challenged.

of course, Queen Pelosi is out there but she is never wrong so it’s more than fun conspiracy

I’m willing to suspend just react to what I see

[sonatine]

did we discuss this already? apple took a haircut because JPM (iirc) said their analysis indicated their stores were about to start seeing a real dropoff in business.

until they show us a prototype of their car, i dont know... plus they are insanely reliant on chinese manufacturing, arent they?

[Sanlmar]

so those cum lords are long, eh?

[gimmick]

What else would Berkshire hold? Apple is just money that's not shit. There's two kinds of phones, tablets and computers. iPhones and not iPhones, iPads and not iPads, Macs and not Macs.

You should almost never fuck with ceteris paribus things in the real world. Domestic/western production among Apples significant competitors doesn't exist. When everyone gets fucked, no one gets fucked.

Only other realistic holding for Berkshire was Microsoft. Buffet is just preparing for winter. All he cares is where Apple is going to be in the spring. You can just look at early 2020, compare where everything is now and deduct monetary policy. Dollar is few months late. It's not actually strong. It's just not in the gutter right now.

[sonatine]

you know... im looking at the 90 day bank bills, im looking at the 3 year treasury, and im reading this post, and im like.. pending a macro body blow like russia pitching a nuke or melting down a few of our nuke plants... the pessimism might not keep the stonks down long.

Embedded Tweet

[Sanlmar]

Lol Visa CEO

I was literally thinking about posting about the revolving credit numbers but I wasn’t finished with my reading

How about - revolving credit is at an all time high. Yeah, you know - revolving credit is a good kind of credit?

I think I read revolving credit is also averaging an ATH of over 26% which sounds insane but I haven’t had time

I think a record number of cards were issued in the first three months but I skimmed the scroll today and might be wrong.

VISA CEO…. PAAAALEEEEAASE

fundamentally we are deleveraging - this is just how it is. That is never a pleasant thing.

How about the Turkish Lira? You mentioned Argentina today.

[sonatine]

i was JUST reading about turkey and btw india panic raised interest rates today as well.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

HOLY SHIT OWWWWWWWWWEEEE

[sonatine]

[gauchojake]

[sonatine]