General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[sonatine]

Not sure I shared the treasure map here. ES 3760 ….. let’s see where we are tonight. Of course, it’s no secret technically so I’m dying to see what kind of shake and bake they cook up. Gap up or gap down and reverse? It will require you’re being one with the market. Use some smelling salts to clear your head pregame

i cant find an options play on this that pays out better than about 4.8 to 1 and thats providing i nail the bottom more or less perfectly.

if you just launch into a few barely OTM put spreads once we hit that top boundary, youve basically binked 8-1 payout if you hit 3 in a row.

honestly i might be just going around this all wrong but IV just seems kinda fucked up these days, i dont know.

cashed out about half my position for 50% net profit, going to let the rest expire probably and see if i exit for an easy +150% total.

[Sanlmar]

Nice job kiddo. Today was stealing. Last night there was no fear. Flat tonight? Not sure yet. Not shorting this yet

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

i think we are about to price in monkeypox.

[Sanlmar]

There should be some Airbnb availability in the Hamptons

[gauchojake]

[sonatine]

not sure what ER just hit but ES just went a little bonkers in the 10m after market close...

[sonatine]

lmao $SNAP put an end to that dream real fast.

[gauchojake]

Venice "locals" are losing their collective minds right now

[sonatine]

lol wait is this the school/gun thing?

[gauchojake]

Many of Snap's offices are located in Venice Beach and with their growth came a massive influx of newly minted millionaire tech bros. They quickly adopted the look and attitude of "locals" much to the chagrin of long time residents. They also drove housing prices through the roof and drove the community pretty nuts. Watching 30% of their net worth drop off the face of the earth is nice little bit of schadenfreude for me. I fell sorry for the people who I know that work there, but having lived in Venice and the surrounding area for the past 25 years, I can't help it. Anywho...

[sonatine]

gauchojake wooooooooord holy shit

[onestep]

When I am getting back my Retirement fund?

Also I never saw Snap as a sustainable ad revenue stream. Plus the insights I have regarding spend on that platform is meh compared to the other big 3

[gauchojake]

Down 40% now
maybe we should buy

[sonatine]

welp, CBOE auction has been doing its damndest to bid the market back up the last 2 days and then we give it all back during the pajama markets overnight.

i think CBOE wins this tug of war for the next few days / weeks and we probably slither up to ES 4150 or so and then we go on an absolute death march to the real low, which i still think is around 3700 and if we break through that, 3500.

for us to go beyond that significantly means that either the previous decade of gains were simply fake (possible) and/or there are such significant macro concerns (famine, nuclear exchange) that the market has no choice but to price in the wholesale disruption of the fabric of society.

its not impossible of course that weve simply weathered the storm and the market goes shopping for value and we end up breaking 5k by fall, but that makes a lot less sense than the market finishing what it started here; taking profit.

also note that we really havent actually seen any lehman moments; weve seen layoffs from the most egregiously bloated and mismanaged stocks like netflix, but to my knowledge we havent seen the sort of reaping of zombie companies that comes with an actual correction. until the market harvests some souls to make slaves of in the afterlife i dont think theres really been a correction per se. sell off? sure. but not a correction.

[Sanlmar]

Reverse Repo has never been higher. This factoid has been making the rounds yesterday and today. I think of it as a place where all the excess cash has gotten sopped up. Nasdaq has an article past couple of hours.

this isn’t repo like 2019 lulz this is REVERSE REPO.

This is important to me because when the cracks (institutional failure) occur “they” will know about it first - it’ll serve as an early warning system for me. When the easing and rate cuts threaten. They can’t resist. I’ll watch the daily chart.

I could talk all day about reverse repo but I risk losing friends. Like porn repo should be a solitary pursuit.

[Sanlmar]

TSLA wants the old 2020 high of 502 doesn’t it. They would complete an ABC.

did Burry bink this or did he bail?

Musk binked having bailed at the heights. Astonishing rug pull

[sonatine]

i believe he dumped his tsla short position yes.

#weakhands lmaooooooo

[sonatine]

fed minutes have the market pumping but i really question whether or not algs are going to just dump into these highs.

[sonatine]