General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[Sanlmar]

Lol, short term bottom.

wow.

[sonatine]

if ES doesnt hit 4160 in the next 5 days id consider it a really remarkable anomoly.

[sonatine]

i think that if we get up above 4410, Sanlmar 's bottom call is going to probably be proven correct. but yeah i also wonder if this is just a SOTU related bump on the way down.

[Sanlmar]

i think that if we get up above 4410, Sanlmar 's bottom call is going to probably be proven correct. but yeah i also wonder if this is just a SOTU related bump on the way down.

countertrend bounce within an overall trend down

You did say green last night.

can please grab the mic and riff about the unintended consequences surrounding the monetary sanctions.

Stuff like the cutting off billions in payments. (So now central banks gotta provide liquidity AGAIN. Swap lines and all that. The pandemic taught me so much here.

Incentives for countries to do commodity trades in currencies other than dollars. Mark this as end of the dollars reign as the global reserve currency? Sure. Pinhole in the dike at least. Can’t do SWIFT. They move on.

parenthetically & most fascinating to this cynic is that Russian exports like oil are still SWIFT, I believe.

the monster commodity trade between Russia and China will be Euros. Congrats.

creating an incentive system to avoid using dollars is huge

Crushing a major economy is not gonna be a global positive.

[sonatine]

like, hilariously, the closest i can get to an opinion is 'yeah something will probably happen as a result of it'. honestly i have no clue what it could be or what it will look like or how it will affect us. like if russia capitulates right now and pivots to a hard fork of something with china, thats a scenario. if russia doesnt capitulate and chinas cools on their bullshit, thats another scenario. in both cases nothing changes re our postures / sanctions but the outcomes are binary / opposite. its all out of our hands and theres no point in trying to take positions and lastly, lest we forget, its probably all going to be priced in anyway regardless of the outcome.

[sonatine]

uh oh

[sonatine]

ES futures volume for the last few days:

[sonatine]

very curious to see if our closing candle breaks 250k. if not, thats a potentially noteworthy trend.

[sonatine]

252k. hmmmm.

[sonatine]

cant share the tweet because they are currently private but someone i find really reliable in the futures/ES space said they are waiting to enter a short position at around 4460 - 4495:




so you can see where he has basically identified a potential resistance area based on a potential previous cycle high. pretty canny imo. i havent opened sierra in a minute but im guessing if i look, ill see a fucking to of orders stacked up at 4500'ish.

[Sanlmar]

We are in an economic war. By my watch, our last war lasted 20 years.

all joking aside we are going to experience stagflation and the 70’s early 80’s yo. Same difference in time

it’s perfect cause the young Y’s and Millenials don’t know history so they are market fodder

[sonatine]

you know what changes the dynamics a bit, is work from home. love that honestly.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

[sonatine]

[Sanlmar]

It’s all morphing so fast I can’t keep up. Everything changed with the sanctions. I’m usually too cyclical to be depressed economically but it’s starting to get to me.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[Sanlmar]

LME still clowning today

[Sanlmar]

You know what always follows leveraging. De-leveraging.

bear market rallies are fun