General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[Sanlmar]

Price destruction on lower volume.

we put on a top and we will consolidate for a few years.

interest rates rising just aren’t good for equities. Inflation isn’t transitory, once inflation is out of the bag it’s not easy without a recession to lick it. That’s perfectly normal.

Ukraine selling? Maybe some noobs but Biden took off for Delaware …. Leaving the WH and the nerve center. Imminent attack? Yeah, ok.

im gonna watch ABC World News over my roast beef TV dinner. See what the game players are selling. I love the little apple strudel thing they comes with it.

[Sanlmar]

Did I neglect to say we are looking to buy? Do I have to?

[sonatine]

absolute fucking banger:

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[Sanlmar]

Did I neglect to say we are looking to buy? Do I have to?

we were looking like champs overnight then got stopped out.

harsh

[onestep]

Can someone explain to me how a company that pretty much has a monopoly on American sports betting i.e. Draftkings, launches 3 new states every month, just finished the NFL betting season, who has made several millions on NFTs in just 6 months, is down 55% in 3 months and 25% just in the past week?

"Increase costs"? Of what? Setting up these states cant be that exp. I no understand, sir

[sonatine]

i got into this with someone on twitter the day of their IPO. they were absolutely balls deep and were in full on HOW CAN IT LOSE mode and my thoughts were:

1) the valuation is based on explosive macro trends and speculative money

2) fantasy sports betting is regarded as solved, and the overwhelming majority of winning cards are from a tiny handful of whales with excel spreadsheets and absolutely massive bankrolls who are willing to spend millions of dollars a year to make thousands.

3) sportsbetting is gambling and not profitable for retail / dabblers, aka 99.8% of people who do it.

[sonatine]

like they can roll this shit out in all 50 states plus canada plus fucking keplar 22b, its still not going to be a company with a justified $13bn market cap. las vegas sands has a $36bn market cap (and just got cut to junk status btw), are we actually saying with a straight face that draftkings is worth a full third of the lv sands empire? so yeah not a huge DK bull here.

[sonatine]

From 1980 to 2014, a JP Morgan study found:

▪️ 40% of stocks lose money
▪️ 64% of stocks underperform
▪️ ~7% of stocks accounted for nearly ALL of the gains

[sonatine]

honestly i need to read this at 9:29am every single day:

Trading is not trying a bunch of stuff until you find some esoteric set of rules that make money.

It is, at high level, implementing simple obvious stuff that a 5-year-old would understand.

And focus on the more mundane: commercials, cost reduction, managing and accepting risk

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[Sanlmar]

Cathy Wood needs her own show on CNBC

[sonatine]

saw a great comment today on bird site; a lot of stocks in a lot of big portfolios will never see their ATH ever again.

[Sanlmar]

The sickness will be retold to disbelieving listeners for decades

[Sanlmar]

Chip supplier to Apple Intel warns of tight capacity till 2027

as soon as the masks come off we’ll go right back to normal is my favorite lol narrative

[Sanlmar]

Had to shut out the Ukraine noise and trade what I see. You know me and my hate of social media. Trying to keep the mind pure at the risk of missing out on some kind of perverse entertainment. Not saying I’m not into perverse entertainment but it’s not constructive or profitable.

confession…. I’m using Bloomberg for my information. I feel most comfortable with this as a news service. Again, lacks the drama but that’s me.

the [redacted] site with “Trump woulda done this” and the meme reposts is exactly what I need to ignore atm.

what I see is a we are converging on a short term bottom in a counter trend move (up). I suppose US gets physically involved we go lower. Lots of other reasons to go lower as well.

is this a geopolitical event or a war? the notion that Russian troop morale is low and they are unmotivated seems really important

I got some charts I’ll try to make presentable for this evening. Previous conflicts charted. Rushed

[sonatine]

we are converging on a short term bottom

so 13 days ago we did break through resistance but it was pretty meaningless since, which we can probably attribute to the general state of affairs, or maybe just a liquidity trap? in any case, bulls got fucked.

my opinion is just sit on cash until this russia thing resolves, unless a green candle on news that putin is making his nuke forces combat ready makes sense to you.

[sonatine]

i think ES 4050 is going to be where the fight for the next leg of the market happens; the market loves nice round relatable numbers as psychological pivots and its a resistance-turned-support zone.

again providing we actually do leg down again ill be watching for the pivot around 4050 as people front run the algs and visa versa because we're all going to be looking for recovery there and bulls are going to fight. but if we start pushing down into 3900 and lower, we seriously might be in a bear market that can take us down to into 2800 territory.

which again id absolutely fucking adore because the ramp up after is going to be absolutely delicious.

[Sanlmar]

Subscribed ….. too late