General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[sonatine]

meanwhile my mans nav spent 4 months in jail.

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[sonatine]

honestly tho





Tom Graff
I'm usually not that guy, but I told you so. All the post-minutes pieces are about how hawkish the mins were, but what did you expect?? They did a last minute pivot to the largest rate hike in decades. Give how they value Fed guidance, an incredibly hawkish move. But ... 1/

We really need to separate the Fed rhetoric from how they actually think: - They know the econ is slowing - They know a decent slowdown will "solve" inflation - They aren't going to keep blindly hiking forever under such circumstances BUT THEY CANT SAY ANY OF THAT OUT LOUD! 2/

First, they know their reputation was damaged a bit during the whole "transitory" inflation phase. They have to talk extra hawkish to restore their rep. 3/

Second, they know it will be easy to pivot dovish if needed. But if they sound even a little dovish now, it risks ruining all the progress they made both in actually influencing inflation as well as mkt confidence in their commitment to price stability. 4/

So what's going to happen is the Fed will do the opposite of what they did in the summer of '21: use any excuse available to keep up the hawkish comms. Right up until there is enough downward momentum in inflation that they can back off. 5/

As a result, the Fed is going to seem tone deaf on the slowing economy. But it won't be because they are stupid, rather it is their best comms strategy under the circumstances. As investors, I think you will make the wrong moves if you take these comms too literally. (fin)

[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

ya know i read an interesting hit piece on nvda this morning;

https://medium.com/@shuhasegawa/nvid...e-ba9c14953b82

and it got my attention but didnt convince me really. the thesis really seems to be that nvda has nowhere else to grow and that amd is going to drink its milkshake eventually.

and then right on queue amd ER dropped this evening and amd tanked like a bitch.

tldr still very bullish on nvda until the price action tells me not to be.

[Sanlmar]

[Sanlmar]

Insider sales all stocks

[sonatine]

i am once again declaring that there werent many better choices i could have made for a career but there was at least one:

A federal judge in New York vacated the guilty plea of a former Deutsche Bank AG trader who admitted to conspiring with others to manipulate the Libor interest-rate benchmark, after an appeals court overturned the convictions of two of his ex-colleagues earlier this year.

Timothy Parietti “must be viewed as innocent” in light of the January reversal, US District Judge Paul Engelmayer ruled Friday in Manhattan. He also vacated a judgment of conviction against Parietti and ordered the government to “promptly return” the $1 million fine he paid as part of his sentence.

“We are grateful to the judge for overturning Mr. Parietti’s conviction, based on his finding that Mr. Parietti is innocent and allowing his conviction to stand would be a profound injustice,” said his lawyer, Larry Krantz. “Justice has now been done.”

[sonatine]

burry just liquidated his funds entire portfolio and took out a substantial long position on private prisons.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

ya know i read an interesting hit piece on nvda this morning;

https://medium.com/@shuhasegawa/nvid...e-ba9c14953b82

and it got my attention but didnt convince me really. the thesis really seems to be that nvda has nowhere else to grow and that amd is going to drink its milkshake eventually.

and then right on queue amd ER dropped this evening and amd tanked like a bitch.

tldr still very bullish on nvda until the price action tells me not to be.

so our government just told nvidia to not sell its top tier chips to the one country on earth with the resources to easily build their own knockoffs of nvidias top tier chips.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/20/2...e-release-date