General Market Jibber Jabber Thread

[sonatine]

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[Sanlmar]

may 15 @10pm

[sonatine]

top.

[sonatine]

[sonatine]

[Sanlmar]

Japanese and US are selling Treasuries …

So much happening I need to spend 15 minutes on the Yen.

[sonatine]

just a quick reminder; spy 340 could happen.

[sonatine]

upstart / UPST dropped 40% on ER because their AI started going haywire and offering insane loans to people with borderline non existent / utterly toxic credit

[Sanlmar]

Consumer banking AI is here already? I predicted it was near but wow. Self driving consumer finance. Wells Fargo is gonna kill some pedestrians

[Sanlmar]

dow gap up —> 700 point move down

vicious

sell the spike

what the heck did pre 9/11 mean ? still haunts me

[Sanlmar]

Let’s look at NVDA calls Friday expiry shall we?

[sonatine]

fuck man how much do you want to bet they issue guidance over supply chain disruptions tho

[Sanlmar]

Nvda 190’s 5/13 1.20 —-> 2.00 between these two posts

I’m not suggesting taking possession. I don’t want to be burdened by possessions. Travel light

[Sanlmar]

Ukraine halts half of world’s neon output for chips, clouding outlook

I studied transistors in school. PNP NPN doping the whole shebang. Never heard about neon.

[Sanlmar]

Norm McDonald graduated high school when he was 14.

Give me little cup & handle and we could launch. I don’t want a home run

norm McDonald had cancer 3x beginning at 26. He didn’t give a fuck and maybe this was why

[sonatine]

i cant find an options play on this that pays out better than about 4.8 to 1 and thats providing i nail the bottom more or less perfectly.

if you just launch into a few barely OTM put spreads once we hit that top boundary, youve basically binked 8-1 payout if you hit 3 in a row.

honestly i might be just going around this all wrong but IV just seems kinda fucked up these days, i dont know.

[Sanlmar]

I know I said some things to you in the heat of passion.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Tons of delicious charts and such. We are still selling the spike but you can ride the bounce if you are woke to the fact that we are herding the kids into the railway cars enroute for the final solution. Get ready to jump

[gauchojake]

If Putin dies or is removed, do we see a major rally?

[sonatine]

i think it depends on who sits on the throne next and how orderly the transition of power goes. id honestly expect the market to tank because the market tends to hate uncertainty more than anything. like there are a great many scenarios where things get worse and very few where things get better/more stable. but that said, the war is such an unmitigated disaster that one of those stabilizing situations could easily be the most palatable for all the relevant parties. on the other end of the spectrum you have a hard liner hawk without the requisite leverage to and influence to orchestrate a continuity of government across the various clans holding sway, resulting in anything from internecine violence between warlords seeking to consolidate power to 30 year old suitcase nukes on darkweb markets. these would not be bullish scenarios.

[sonatine]

so burry just shorted apple.


https://markets.businessinsider.com/...et-meta-2022-5


consider what would happen to the S&P if apple really did take any significant L's.