world war 3 thread

[sonatine]

holy fucking shit.

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[sonatine]

Putin "stressed a settlement is possible only if Russia’s legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account [...] At the same time, it was noted that the Russian side is open to negotiations with Ukraine and expects that they will lead to the desired results."

some interesting angles to work with here. green tomorrow? mayhaps.

[betcheckbet]

Bald and Bankrupt one of my fave youtubers. He is a soviet scholar who was known for visiting the old soviets states. His videos are great and definitely worth watching.

anyways I was looking last week and curious where he was as nothing was recently uploaded to his channel. We'll know we know why.

bonus video of some of his best stuff

[sonatine]

another absolute fire are people going ham on the 'lol lets hack russia!!1111111oneone1!1!111' vibe who are absolutely 10000% going to end up traveling abroad in a few years and find themselves under arrest and extradited to russia to face charges.

[sonatine]

like apparently there are an awful lot of US/UK tiktokers who are volunteering to head to ukraine to fight and i urge you all to tuck into this absolute wild shit.

[Bob]

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[sonatine]

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[sonatine]

things feel like they are getting very polarized in terms of how this moves forward. door #1 is putin basically adhering to russian military doctrine and rolling out increasingly levels of violence, starting with the thermobarics on soft targets and moving up to battlefield nukes if his objectives cant be met without them. the x factor to all this is that the overwhelming majority of the rich and powerful around him do not want to live in a country thats already being reduced to another north korean hermit kingdom. and i think weve been very careful to _not_ go after their holdings (eg: London real estate) because we want them to have some skin in the de-escalation game. but its honestly not clear what they can do because putin, through various "constitutional amendments" has become not just a leader but the entire russian state made flesh. the assertion that anyone can just invoke some legal means to be rid of him is not realistic, and theres also the question of what would hold russia together in his absence. fingers real fuckin crossed tho.

[betcheckbet]

Was listening to former nato commander today. He basically said that Russia has been extremely restrained likely because of wanting the Ukrainian people on their side. But with the way things are going it’s quite possible they will lose that restraint and go full out causing major casualties. He stated that the actions around nukes are especially concerning and not common.

he also talked about expecting some major cyber attacks on financial systems in the west through Russian hackers as they likely won’t accept what’s been done to their economy.

[sonatine]

Russia sets ceiling for exchange rates to prevent a crash: 101 rubles for 1 Euro, 90 rubles for 1 U.S. dollar


ok or hear me out or stop invading neighbors.

[sonatine]

right now the only thing anyone is really concerned about is providing russia an off-ramp. no one _wants_ russia to go to zero because the party line, literally, in russia right now is why shouldnt they obliterate the world if a world without russia?

and where shit gets suuuuper tricky is that not only are european nations contributing fighter jets but... some of them are being flown by european pilots. meaning european nations are about to go kinetic against russian forces.

so yeah.... close your eyes and imagine off-ramps.

[Sanlmar]

So while there will no doubt be a speculative attack on the ruble in the hopes of driving up Russian inflation … there is NO BAN ON RUSSIAN EXPORTS

In rubles the exports are worth more. Hmmmmm & wtf

if you could forward this message to your Washington contact - which is to say something isn’t as it appears - some degree of theater here

[sonatine]

we arent out of normal ranging yet, in fact we arent even below fridays lows. we just shed that huge exuberant rush after biden made us feel like we might not die in a nuclear apocalypse.

covid cost us either 32 or 38% off highs, i forget which and i dont feel like looking. we are barely 22% off highs as of friday close. so we can lose another 10-15% before we can even start to wonder if ww3 is priced in, which clearly it isnt.

lotta easy money waiting to be made if we live through this. weekly ITM QQQ calls spreads at +20% per for 6 months and you can 80x your money and thats seriously not a typo.

[Sanlmar]

Asian oil buyers hunting for more Saudi Crude on crisis fears.
-Bloomberg

Asian stocks drop,as Traders Mull Fed plans amid Ukraine tension
-Bloomberg

now I don’t have to play a single hand but trying to sift fact from fiction and suss out some possible scenarios is what we do

Nasdaq was down within a whisker of 3%. This has been quite the catalyst for popping the risk on bubble of the past two years. Again we circle back to the Fed.

there isn’t a market that isn’t affected. Wanna play wheat? (Black Sea region important and likely boycotted.)

oil prices kill anticipated growth?

two banks restricting China letters of credit for the purchase of Russian commodities. The China/Russia coalition is key. If that unravels I become unraveled because I cannot fathom where that leaves Putin. Unless someone (US);extends Putin an “out” he is capable of anything.

Russia bans foreigners from selling Russian securities…. Hmmm

short the yuan…. Obvious

[sonatine]